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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

President Donald Trump paused Project Freedom on Tuesday evening, the day after launching the operation he announced Sunday night to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. In a Truth Social post quoted by CBS News, NBC News, CNN, Al Jazeera and Fox News, Trump cited “the request of Pakistan and other Countries” and “Great Progress” toward “a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran.” Brent crude closed at $109.87, down about 4%, per CNBC. The blockade on Iranian ports remains in full force.

By Gosships analysis, this is the validation moment for Monday night’s thesis. Brent rose 6% Monday on Iran’s contested missile claim and the UAE escalation that followed. Brent fell 4% Tuesday on a single Trump Truth Social post. Two trading sessions, two social media events, two market repricings. The war risk premium is now levered to presidential and Iranian narrative speed in 24-hour windows.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

📊 Get The Deep Water Report

→ Global Tanker Market Outlook Q2 2026

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📌 Gosships Data Card

→ Project Freedom Began Monday May 4 Per CENTCOM

→ Trump Paused Project Freedom Tuesday Evening Per Truth Social

→ The Pause Came The Day After Launch

→ Only 4 Ships Crossed The Strait Monday Per S&P Global

→ Pre-War Average Was More Than 120 Ships Daily Per CNN

→ UAE Engaged 12 Ballistic Missiles, 3 Cruise Missiles, 4 Drones Per UAE Defence Ministry

→ Brent Closed At $109.87, Down 4% Per CNBC

→ WTI Closed At $102.27, Down 4% Per CNBC

→ Hegseth Said US Built “Red, White And Blue Dome” Over Strait

→ Pakistan Requested The Pause Per Trump Truth Social

→ The Iranian Port Blockade Remains Active Per Trump

→ 1,550 Vessels Remain Trapped Per Hegseth

→ Araghchi Said: “Project Freedom Is Project Deadlock”

🛢️ The Story

President Donald Trump paused Project Freedom on Tuesday evening, posting on Truth Social, per Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, CNN and Al Jazeera: “Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

President Donald Trump’s Project Freedom launched Monday morning, Middle East time. On day one, Iran fired cruise missiles at the United Arab Emirates, drones at an ADNOC tanker, and small boats and missiles at US Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM said two US-flagged merchant vessels successfully transited. Maersk confirmed one was the Alliance Fairfax. Brent crude closed up nearly 6% at $114.44 per barrel, per CNBC.

By Gosships analysis, the war risk premium is now levered to Iranian narrative speed, not just Iranian capability. The 6% Brent move came on a contested Iranian missile claim that CENTCOM denied within hours. The market priced the Iranian narrative as fact before the denial settled. That is the Day One signal underwriters, traders, and compliance officers should be modeling, not the Alliance Fairfax transit.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

  ---

📊 Get The Deep Water Report

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📌 Gosships Data Card

→ Project Freedom Began Monday May 4 Per CENTCOM Via CNN

→ Two US-Flagged Merchant Vessels Transited The Strait Per CENTCOM

→ Maersk Alliance Fairfax Confirmed As First Named Transit Per Maersk Statement

→ Iran’s Navy Said It Prevented US Warships From Entering Per Reuters

→ Iran’s Fars News Claimed US Warship Hit By Two Missiles Near Jask Per Fars

→ CENTCOM: “No US Navy Ships Have Been Struck” Per CENTCOM Via CNBC

→ US Helicopters Sank Six Iranian Boats Per Adm Cooper Via Fox News

→ Trump Said US “Shot Down Seven” Boats Per Truth Social Via CBS

→ ADNOC Tanker Barakah Hit By Two Drones Off Fujairah Per UAE Foreign Ministry

→ UAE Intercepted Three Of Four Iranian Cruise Missiles Per UAE Defence Ministry

→ Fire At Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, Three Indians Injured Per Fujairah Media Office

→ South Korean HMM Namu Explosion And Fire Near UAE Per South Korea Foreign Ministry

→ Brent Closed Up 6% At $114.44 Per Barrel Per CNBC

🛢️ The Story

President Donald Trump’s Project Freedom began Monday morning, Middle East time, per CNBC. On day one of operations, Iran’s military, the IRGC, and

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

President Donald Trump said the United States will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday morning, Middle East time. A US official told CNN it is not an escort mission. Trump named the operation Project Freedom in a Truth Social post on Sunday, May 3, 2026, and warned any interference would have to be dealt with forcefully. US Central Command said its support would include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members. Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, wrote on X that any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

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→ Sunday May 3 Trump Announces Project Freedom On Truth Social Per CNN

→ Monday May 4 Middle East Time Operation Begins Per Trump Truth Social Post

→ CENTCOM Support Includes 15,000 Service Members Per CENTCOM Statement

→ Over 100 Land And Sea-Based Aircraft Per CENTCOM Statement

→ Guided-Missile Destroyers And Multi-Domain Unmanned Platforms Per CENTCOM Statement

→ A US Official Told CNN Project Freedom Is Not An Escort Mission Per CNN

→ Iran Parliament Security Chief Ebrahim Azizi Calls It A Ceasefire Violation Per CNN

→ AAA National Average Gas Reached $4.45 Per Gallon Saturday May 2 Per CNN

🛢️ The Story

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday, May 3, 2026, that the United States will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning, Middle East time. He named the operation Project Freedom.

A critical operational distinction emerged immediately. CNN reported: “A US official told CNN that ‘Project Freedom’ is not an escort mission.” Task & Purpose quoted CENTCOM as saying the defensive mission would “involve coordinating the transit of the merchant vessels through the strait.” Trump’s announcement used the word “guide” and Trump’s representatives have been told to use “best efforts to get their Ships and Crews safely out of the Strait,” per his Truth Social post via The Jerusalem Post.

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the American naval blockade in a Fox News interview that aired Monday, April 27, 2026. Washington will not accept any framework that lets Tehran charge tolls on what Rubio called an international waterway. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 Brent forecast to $90 in an April 26 note cited by Bloomberg, attributing the move to 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf production losses. Brent climbed as much as 2.5% to $107.97 intraday on April 27, according to Bloomberg. The US gasoline average reached $4.099 per gallon as of April 26, AAA reports. By Gosships analysis, Rubio's rejection sustains Goldman's $30 Q4 premium for at least two more months.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

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📌 Gosships Data Card

→ April 27: Rubio Rejects Iran Hormuz Proposal (Fox News)

→ April 26: Goldman Sachs Raises Q4 Brent Forecast To $90/Barrel From $80 (Goldman Via Bloomberg)

→ 14.5 Million: Barrels Per Day Of Persian Gulf Crude Production Losses (Goldman)

→ April 27: Brent Climbed 2.5% To $107.97/Barrel Intraday (Bloomberg)

→ April 26: AAA National Gasoline Average $4.099/Gallon (AAA)

🛢️ The Story

In a Fox News interview with Chief Foreign Correspondent Trey Yingst on April 27, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade and ending the war. Rubio characterized the Iranian framework with the line “we’ll blow you up and you pay us,” CNBC reported. He underscored the legal status of the strait directly: “Those are international waterways.” On the central question, Rubio rejected the premise that Iran can decide passage rights or impose tolls.

The rejection followed an Axios report, flagged by the Times of Israel on April

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

Per the Baltic Exchange weekly report dated April 17, 2026, the TD3C Middle East Gulf to China VLCC rate is almost $474,000 per day, four times the pre-war level of $117,360 recorded mid-February. Per Caixin Global, daily charter rates reached nearly $800,000 within the first week of the war that began February 28, with one VLCC fixture at $770,000 per day. Per S&P Global, all 12 International Group P&I Clubs, covering 90 percent of world ocean tonnage, gave 72-hour cancellation notices for war cover (effective March 5 per the Irregular Warfare Initiative). Per Caixin, war risk premiums jumped from 0.25 percent to 1 percent of hull value. Per Gosships analysis, the insurance market closed the strait before any IRGC attack. The April 22 IRGC seizures compounded an already-closed market.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

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→ Baltic Exchange TD3C VLCC Rate Four Hundred Seventy-Four Thousand USD Per Day April Seventeen Per Baltic Exchange

→ Pre-War TD3C Baseline One Hundred Seventeen Thousand USD Per Day Mid-February Per Baltic Exchange

→ War Risk Premiums Jumped From Zero Point Two Five Percent To One Percent Of Hull Value Per Caixin

→ All Twelve International P And I Clubs Canceled Cover March Five Per S And P Global

→ Brent Crude Settled At One Hundred One Point Nine One USD Per Barrel April Twenty-Two Per CNBC

🛢️ The Story

Per the US Energy Information Administration’s Today In Energy report dated

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

(Tanker Watch)

Brent crude settled at $101.91 per barrel today, up more than 3 percent, after Iran’s IRGC attacked three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, per CNBC, NPR, Al Jazeera, and Investing.com. AAA’s live national gas average is $4.020 per gallon today, down from $4.118 a week ago. AAA’s headline today reads “Drivers See Small Break as Gas Prices Tick Lower.” This is a directional split: crude up, retail down. Six weeks ago, the Hormuz crisis produced the largest single-month US gasoline price increase since the BLS began the gasoline series in 1967, a 21.2 percent spike per BLS. Per Gosships analysis, the supply chain between crude and pump may be absorbing today’s shock differently than in March. Whether the lag persists is the directional question for April.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

  ---

📊 Get The Deep Water Report

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→ Gasoline Up Twenty-One Point Two Percent In March Per BLS

→ Largest Monthly Increase Since Gasoline Series Began In Nineteen Sixty-Seven

→ AAA National Average Four Point Zero Two Zero USD Per Gallon Today

→ Iran Attacked Three Vessels In Hormuz Today Per NPR

→ Brent Crude Settled At One Hundred One Point Nine One USD Per Barrel Today Per CNBC

🛢️ The Story

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its March 2026 Consumer Price Index report on April 10. Per the BLS, the gasoline index rose 21.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, the largest monthly increase in the gasoline series since it was first published in 1967. Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 24.9 percent. Per the BLS, the energy index rose 10.9 percent in March, the largest monthly increase since September 2005. Per the BLS, gasoline alone accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly all-items CPI increase. Headline CPI rose 0.9 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, putting the annual rate at 3.3 percent, up from 2.4 percent in February, per the BLS.

Per EIA daily Brent spot data via FRED, Brent closed at $71.32 per barrel on February 27, 2026 (the day before the war began) and rose to $77.24 by March 2. Per EY’s analysis of the March CPI release citing market data, WTI crude oil prices briefly surpassed $110 per barrel in March. Gosships analysis: gasoline retail prices typically lag wholesale moves by one to two weeks because wholesale-to-retail pass-through requires inventory turnover at the distributor and station level.

Per CNBC’s coverage of the March CPI release, US drivers paid $4.12 per gallon on average as of Monday April 6 per the EIA’s weekly data, up from approximately $2.94 before the war started, marking the first time the national average breached $4 since 2022 (when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent prices soaring). Per EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 2026), the 2025 annual average was $3.10 per gallon and EIA forecasts retail gasoline to peak at a monthly average close to $4.30 per gallon in April 2026 with a full-year 2026 average of $3.70 per gallon. Per AAA’s live national price report fetched directly from gasprices.aaa.com today, the national regular average is $4.020 per gallon, down from $4.042 yesterday and $4.118 one week ago, with a month-ago average of $3.925 and a year-ago average of $3.153. Per AAA’s news headline today: “Drivers See Small Break as Gas Prices Tick Lower.” Per Empower Personal Dashboard data published in April, US drivers spent $198.50 per month on gas on average in March, at $45.70 per transaction. Per AAA’s state averages fetched directly today, California drivers paid $5.829 per gallon (highest), Hawaii $5.658, Washington $5.379, Oregon $4.971, Nevada $4.930. Oklahoma drivers paid $3.381 per gallon (lowest). Per AAA’s all-time record, the highest national regular average was $5.016 on June 14, 2022.

Per CNN, households earning under $30,000 annually spend an average of 7.1 percent of pre-tax income on gas. Per CNN’s calculation using BLS household income tier data, if March gas price levels persist for one year, those households would pay an additional $223 annually. Per Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, speaking to CNBC after the CPI release: “Inflation is a problem and it’s only going to get worse.” Per Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, speaking to CNN: “There’s been bigger energy price shocks in total, but they’ve rippled through over several months. This just came through in one month.”

Per NPR, Al Jazeera, and CNBC, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked at least three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, April 22, hours after President Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire. Per the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center cited by NPR, an IRGC gunboat approached and fired on a container ship without warning, causing heavy damage to the bridge but no injuries. Per Iranian state media via Al Jazeera, the IRGC said the vessels had violated maritime regulations and entered the strategic waterway without coordination. Per Iranian semiofficial outlets Tasnim and Fars cited by NPR, Iran’s navy reported seizing the MSC Francesca and the Greek-owned Epaminondas, and Fars reported a third ship called the Euphoria was also targeted. Per the Greek Ministry of Shipping cited by multiple outlets, the Epaminondas was not captured but received extensive damage. Per Al Jazeera, the IRGC stated the action came in response to what it described as the United States’ capture of an Iranian commercial vessel, a reference to the M/T Tifani interdiction in the Bay of Bengal on April 21.

Per Al Jazeera citing British maritime security firm Vanguard Tech, the container vessel that came under fire was sailing under a Liberian flag and had been informed it had permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Per Iranian news agency Tasnim cited by Al Jazeera, the ship had ignored warnings from Iran’s armed forces. Per Vanguard Tech via Al Jazeera, the third targeted vessel was the Panama-flagged container ship Euphoria, which was transiting outbound of the Strait. Per MarineTraffic via AFP, the Euphoria later left the strait headed to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Per the Greek Ministry of Shipping cited by multiple outlets, the Epaminondas was not captured but received extensive damage. Per AFP, the attack on the Epaminondas consisted of gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades, causing significant damage to the bridge.

Per CNBC, Brent crude settled at $101.91 per barrel today, up more than 3 percent. Per Yahoo Finance citing NYMEX, the Brent Last Day Financial contract closed at $101.81 (+3.38%) at 4:56 PM EDT. Per CNBC, US West Texas Intermediate futures settled at $92.96 per barrel, up more than 3 percent. Per Investing.com, Brent’s intraday range today was $96.56 to $102.31. Per Fortune, Brent traded at $101.14 per barrel at 9 AM Eastern Time, up $4.82 from the prior morning. Per Reuters wire reporting cited by Investing.com, oil prices jumped by more than $3 on Wednesday after a surprise gasoline and distillate inventory drop combined with reports of gunfire on container ships in Hormuz. Per the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report fetched directly from ir.eia.gov today, US commercial crude oil inventories rose 1.9 million barrels to 465.7 million barrels (about 3 percent above the five-year average), gasoline inventories fell 4.6 million barrels to 228.4 million barrels (0.5 percent below five-year average), and distillate inventories fell 3.4 million barrels to 108.1 million barrels (about 8 percent below five-year average). Refinery utilization was 89.1 percent. Per Barchart citing CME, June RBOB gasoline futures (RBM26) settled up $0.1201 (+3.84 percent) on April 22, with gasoline posting a 3-week high. June WTI crude (CLM26) settled up $3.29 (+3.67 percent) on Wednesday.

Per CNBC’s reporting on the UKMTO advisory, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said the vessel that was fired upon was approached by an IRGC gunboat about 8 nautical miles off the coast of Iran at 8:38 AM London time, with the crew safe and no damage sustained at that time.

Per CNN, US carriers raised checked baggage prices in the weeks following the war’s start to offset higher jet fuel costs. Per CNN, JetBlue raised its first checked bag fee from $35 to $39 (off-peak) and from $40 to $49 (peak). Per CNN, Delta raised checked baggage fees by between $4 and $9 depending on flight times. Per CNBC citing Kayak weekly flight data, an average round-trip economy fare from the United States to Rome cost $1,165 as of March 30, up from $846 on February 23. A round-trip ticket to Hong Kong rose to $1,403 from $1,042 over the same period. Per CNBC citing CPI data, airfares rose 14.9 percent year-on-year in March.

📊 By The Numbers

→ US Gasoline Up Twenty-One Point Two Percent In March Per BLS

→ Largest Monthly Increase Since Series Began In Nineteen Sixty-Seven

→ Brent Crude Seventy-One Point Three Two USD February Twenty-Seven To One Hundred One Point Nine One USD April Twenty-Two Per EIA And CNBC

→ AAA National Average Four Point Zero Two Zero USD Per Gallon Today Down From Four Point One One Eight Week Ago

→ March Headline CPI Annual Rate Three Point Three Percent

→ Iran Attacked Three Commercial Vessels In Hormuz Today Per NPR

🔍 Why It Matters

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

Russia sent a missile frigate armed with Kalibr cruise missiles to escort two sanctioned oil tankers through the English Channel on April 8. The Royal Navy monitored the transit. Britain did not board, detain, or intercept a single vessel. The defense press covered the confrontation. Nobody has analyzed what it means for your insurance, your charter, or your sanctions exposure. Two weeks earlier, on March 25, Prime Minister Keir Starmer had authorized British armed forces to board and seize sanctioned shadow fleet ships in UK waters. The tanker diesel that sailed past the south coast of England that morning is now on its way to Turkey. The UK Government says the shadow fleet’s revenues fund Russia’s war in Ukraine. UK diesel averaged 192p per litre the week of April 13, up from 143p before the war began on February 28, according to UK Government data via PetrolPrices. The diesel on those tankers enters the same global market that sets the price at your pump.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

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→ March 25: UK PM Starmer Authorizes Military To Board Shadow Fleet Ships (UK Gov)

→ April 8, 9:00 AM: Frigate Admiral Grigorovich Escorts MV Universal And MV Enigma Towards Portsmouth (The Telegraph)

→ April 8: Both Tankers Carrying 40,000 Tonnes Diesel Each From Primorsk (Reuters/LSEG)

→ April 8: HMS Mersey And RFA Tideforce Monitor. No Boarding. No Interception. (Navy Lookout, Reuters)

→ April 9: Kremlin Peskov Calls Western Enforcement "Piracy," Says Russia Will Take Measures To Protect Its Interests (Reuters)

→ April 9: UK Defence Secretary Healey: “We Are Ready To Take Action.” (AP)

→ April 15: UK Seizures Since Authorization: Zero

🛢️ The Story

On the morning of April 8, a Russian Black Sea Fleet frigate sailed between two sanctioned oil tankers off the south coast of England. The frigate was the Admiral Grigorovich, a 3,620-tonne warship armed with Kalibr cruise missiles and anti-ship weapons, according to The Telegraph, which had a reporter on the water approximately 10 miles off Dover. The two tankers were the MV Universal, sailing under the Russian flag, and the MV Enigma, sailing under the Cameroon flag. Both are on the UK sanctions list, according to Reuters.

The three vessels transited westward through the English Channel with the frigate positioned between the two tankers, according to The Telegraph. They sailed towards Portsmouth shortly after 9:00 AM. The Royal Navy did not board, intercept, or detain either vessel.

Both tankers were carrying approximately 40,000 tonnes of diesel each, loaded at the Russian Baltic port of Primorsk in Russia’s Leningrad region at the end of March, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. The Enigma is heading to Mersin, Turkey. The destination of the Universal was not clear, Reuters reported on April 9.

The Royal Navy deployed HMS Mersey, a River-class offshore patrol vessel, alongside the RFA Tideforce, a fleet tanker, and a Wildcat helicopter from 815 Naval Air Squadron to monitor the transit, according to Navy Lookout. Belgian, French, and Dutch aircraft and ships were also involved in the monitoring operation, according to Reuters. No boarding or interception was attempted.

The English Channel is an international strait where transit passage rights apply under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS Part III, Articles 37-44). The legal authority Starmer granted on March 25 applies to sanctioned vessels in UK waters, but the practical application in an international strait where transit passage is protected is more complex than the authorization alone suggests. Defence Matters, a European defense analysis publication, noted that “the threshold between monitoring and intervention remains finely balanced” when a state navy enters the picture in a congested, politically sensitive route.

This happened 14 days after Prime Minister Keir Starmer authorized British armed forces to board and seize sanctioned shadow fleet vessels in UK waters. The authorization was announced on March 25 ahead of the Joint Expeditionary Force Summit in Helsinki, according to the UK Government. Starmer addressed the summit on March 26. He said at the time: “Putin is rubbing his hands at the war in the Middle East because he thinks higher oil prices will let him line his pockets. That’s why we’re going after his shadow fleet even harder, not just keeping Britain safe but starving Putin’s war machine of the dirty profits that fund his barbaric campaign in Ukraine,” according to the UK Government press release.

Since that authorization, no boarding has been conducted. No vessel has been seized. More than 300 shadow fleet movements have been recorded in and around UK waters in the first three months of 2026, according to the UK Government. The UK has imposed sanctions on 544 Russian shadow fleet vessels, according to the UK Government.

On April 9, one day after the escort, the Kremlin responded. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “We have witnessed cases of piracy in international waters. These cases harmed the economic interests of the Russian Federation, so Russia considers itself in the right, and will take measures to protect its interests,” according to Reuters.

On the same day, UK Defence Secretary John Healey held a press conference at 9 Downing Street. Asked about the shadow fleet escort, Healey said: “We have the military options, and we’re ready to take action. Not just in support of, but action with, allies to interdict shadow fleet vessels,” according to the Associated Press. Healey also stated: “If Russia is rerouting its shadow ships or escorting them with its own warships, the stance, the military posture, the determined work that we’ve done, particularly with allied nations, is having an impact and making it harder for Putin to pursue his illegal oil revenues,” according to the April 9 press conference, as reported by AP.

The escort was not an isolated incident. Between March 29 and April 7, HMS Mersey tracked multiple Russian naval units transiting the Channel, including the Admiral Grigorovich, the landing ship Aleksandr Shabalin, and a Kilo-class submarine, the Krasnodar, which transited on the surface, according to Navy Lookout.

Russia’s shadow fleet consists of approximately 700 vessels, carrying around 40% of all Russian oil exports including refined products, according to The Telegraph. Around 75% of Russia’s crude oil specifically is transported by these vessels, according to the UK Government. The higher percentage reflects crude oil only; the lower reflects all oil exports including diesel, fuel oil, and other products.

The legal framework exists. On March 25, the UK Government confirmed that military and law enforcement specialists had trained for scenarios including boarding vessels that resist, are armed, or use surveillance to evade capture, according to the UK Government. Each target ship is individually assessed by law enforcement, military, and energy market specialists before a recommendation is made to ministers, the UK Government stated.

France has already acted. A French Maritime Gendarmerie team boarded the Mozambique-flagged tanker Deyna, described by France as part of Russia’s shadow fleet, in the Mediterranean on March 20, according to AP. The United States and UK cooperated in the seizure of the Bella 1 in January 2026, according to Downing Street.

Britain authorized. France boarded. The United States seized. Russia responded with a missile frigate. And on April 8, in the English Channel, the sanctioned diesel sailed past without incident.

What this means for P&I underwriters repricing war risk on shadow fleet interdiction, for compliance officers navigating a sanctions regime now challenged by military force, and for every shipowner transiting waters where armed escorts protect sanctioned trade, is below.

Related Coverage:

Shadow Fleet Under Fire: Sanctions Warfare

Maritime Sanctions 2026: Shadow Fleet Surge

The Shadow Beneath the Waves: The Rise of the Dark Fleet

📊 By The Numbers

→ Zero: UK Seizures Since March 25 Authorization

→ 544: Shadow Fleet Vessels Sanctioned By The UK (UK Gov)

→ 300+: Shadow Fleet Transits Through UK Waters In Q1 2026 (UK Gov)

→ ~700: Total Russian Shadow Fleet Vessels (The Telegraph)

→ 75%: Of Russia’s Crude Oil Moved By Shadow Fleet (UK Gov)

→ 14 Days: From Starmer Authorization To Frigate Escort

→ 40,000 Tonnes: Diesel Cargo Per Tanker, Loaded At Primorsk (Reuters/LSEG)

→ 3,620 Tonnes: Admiral Grigorovich Displacement, Armed With Kalibr Missiles

→ April 8: The Day The Escort Transited. No Boarding.

→ April 9: Kremlin Called Western Enforcement “Piracy” (Reuters)

→ April 9: Healey Said UK Is “Ready To Take Action” (AP)

🔍 Why It Matters

For P&I underwriters, the risk model for shadow fleet interdiction changed on April 8.

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

The US blockade of Iranian ports started at 10am Eastern Time this morning. But CENTCOM’s actual order is not what Trump announced. On Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US Navy would begin “BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” according to CBS News and CNBC. On Sunday night, CENTCOM issued a different statement. CENTCOM said the blockade would apply to “all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports” but that US forces “will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports,” according to CNBC, CNN, and Al Jazeera. That is a critical distinction. Trump’s version blockades the entire strait. CENTCOM’s version blockades Iran. For every shipowner with cargo bound for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, or Iraq, the US military just said: you can pass. The problem is that Iran has not said the same thing.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

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→ April 13, 10:00 AM ET: US Blockade Of Iranian Ports Began (CENTCOM Via CNBC)

→ April 13: CENTCOM: “Will Not Impede Freedom Of Navigation For Vessels Transiting To And From Non-Iranian Ports” (CNBC, CNN, Al Jazeera)

→ April 13: Trump: Iranian Fast Attack Boats Will Be “Immediately ELIMINATED” (Truth Social Via CNBC)

→ April 13: Brent Crude $102/Barrel. Up 7%. (CNN, AP) → April 13: WTI Crude $103-$104/Barrel. Up 7-8%. Oil Breaks $100. (CNBC, AP, NBC News)

→ April 13: UK Will Not Participate. Starmer: “We Are Not Supporting The Blockade.” (Al Jazeera, BBC)

→ April 13: France And UK Organizing Separate Freedom Of Navigation Conference (Macron Via Al Jazeera)

→ April 13: Australia: "We've Received No Requests That We Haven't Agreed To." (Albanese Via CNN)

→ April 13: IRGC: Any Approaching Military Vessels Breach The Ceasefire. “Severe Response.” (Al Jazeera)

→ April 13: FAO Warns Of Global Food Crisis If Strait Stays Closed (CNN)

→ April 13: Last Two Pre-War Tankers About To Deliver. World Will Have Exhausted Pre-War Crude. (JPMorgan Via CNN)

→ April 13: 250 Million Barrels Drawn From Reserves Since War Began (JPMorgan Via CNN)

→ April 13: 500-700 Vessels Stuck In The Gulf (Lloyd’s List Via USNI News)

🛢️ The Story

At 10:00 AM Eastern Time on Monday, April 13, the United States began its blockade of Iranian ports. The blockade applies to “all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” according to CENTCOM via CNBC and CNN. Trump warned on Truth Social that any Iranian fast attack boats that approach the blockade “will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea. It is quick and brutal,” according to CNBC.

But CENTCOM’s actual order contains a line that changes the entire calculus for shipowners. CENTCOM said US forces “will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports,” according to CNBC, CNN, and Al Jazeera. This is a significant scaling back from Trump’s original announcement on Sunday, which said the Navy would blockade “any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” according to CBS News and CNBC.

The distinction matters. Trump’s version meant every ship in the strait was a target. CENTCOM’s version means only ships going to or coming from Iranian ports are targets. For a VLCC loading at Yanbu, or a container ship headed for Jebel Ali, CENTCOM just said: you are not in our crosshairs.

The problem is that Iran still controls the strait itself. The IRGC has not changed its position. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that any military vessel approaching the strait would be in breach of the ceasefire and would be met with a “severe response,” according to Al Jazeera. The ceasefire, which began on April 7, is set to expire on April 22, nine days from today.

The UK immediately distanced itself from the blockade. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told BBC radio: “We are not supporting the blockade. The UK is not getting dragged in,” according to Al Jazeera. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France and the UK would convene a separate conference aimed at “restoring freedom of navigation” in the strait, calling it a “strictly defensive” mission, according to Al Jazeera and CNN. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters: "We've received no requests that we haven't agreed to," according to CNN.

Oil prices surged past $100 on the news. Brent crude rose 7% to $102 per barrel, according to CNN and AP. WTI jumped 7-8% to $103-$104 per barrel, according to CNBC, AP, and NBC News. This is the first time oil has broken $100 since Brent briefly touched $119 in the first week of the war, according to AP. Dow futures sank 517 points, and S&P 500 futures declined 1%, according to CNBC.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization issued a warning today that a global food crisis could develop if normal shipping does not resume through the strait soon. “It’s essential for the ceasefire to continue, and that vessels can start to move, to avoid the problem of food inflation,” said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero, according to CNN. He warned the “clock is ticking.”

JPMorgan analysts noted that the last two oil tankers that left the strait before the war began on February 28 are about to deliver their cargo. The Ocean Thunder, carrying Iraqi crude to Malaysia, and the Yuan Ju Wan, carrying jet fuel to Australia, are the final vessels from the pre-war era still on the water, according to CNN. Once they deliver, the world will have exhausted its entire supply of pre-war Gulf crude and fuel. Global reserves have drawn down by 250 million barrels since the war began, according to JPMorgan via CNN.

Iran’s parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf responded to the blockade by posting a photo of gas prices at stations near the White House, writing on X: “Enjoy the current price of gasoline. With what is being called a ‘blockade,’ you will soon miss $4 to $5 gasoline,” according to CNN.

Iran has continued to export crude oil through the war, averaging 1.85 million barrels per day through March, up approximately 100,000 barrels per day from the December-February average, according to Kpler via CNN.

Between 500 and 700 vessels over 10,000 deadweight tons remain stuck in the Persian Gulf, according to Lloyd’s List via USNI News.

Related Coverage:

The Talks Failed. Trump Declared A Blockade.

The Strait Is Mined. The Minesweepers Are Gone.

The Ceasefire Arrived. The Strait Didn’t Open. Then Iran Hit The Pipeline.

What the blockade, the allied split, the CENTCOM scaling back, and the $100 oil price mean for every vessel in the region, is below.

📊 By The Numbers

→ 10:00 AM ET: US Blockade Of Iranian Ports Began (CENTCOM Via CNBC)

→ $102: Brent Crude Per Barrel. Up 7% Today. (CNN, AP)

→ $103-$104: WTI Crude Per Barrel. Up 7-8% Today. (CNBC, AP)

→ $100+: Oil Breaks Triple Digits For The First Time Since Early March (CNBC, AP)

→ UK And France Declined The Blockade. Australia Cooperating On Separate Requests.

→ 250 Million: Barrels Drawn From Global Reserves Since War Began (JPMorgan Via CNN)

→ 2: Pre-War Tankers Still On The Water. The Last Ones. (JPMorgan Via CNN)

→ 1.85 Million: Barrels Per Day Iran Exported Through March. Up From Pre-War. (Kpler Via CNN)

→ 500-700: Vessels Still Stuck In The Gulf (Lloyd’s List Via USNI News)

→ 9: Days Until Ceasefire Expires

→ 517: Points Dow Futures Dropped On The News (CNBC)

🔍 Why It Matters

For shipowners, the CENTCOM statement is the only thing that changed

Read more

🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

The Islamabad talks are over. There is no deal. On Sunday morning, April 12, President Trump posted on Truth Social: “Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Sh…

Read more

🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

Three days into the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill. On Wednesday, Iran published a chart through semiofficial news agencies ISNA and Tasnim showing a large circle marked “danger zone” over the Traffic Separation Scheme, the standard shipping lanes through the strait, according to the Associated Press. On Thursday, Kpler analysts estimated that safe transit capacity is constrained to a maximum of 10 to 15 passages per day if the ceasefire holds, according to Al Jazeera. Before the war, more than 135 ships crossed daily. On Friday morning, President Trump posted on Truth Social that “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz,” according to Al Jazeera. Seven ships transited on Thursday, according to Kpler via Al Jazeera. Only two oil tankers have transited since the ceasefire began, one of which was Iranian, according to Kpler via CNBC. More than 600 vessels, including 325 tankers, remain stranded in the Gulf, according to Lloyd’s List via Al Jazeera. The ceasefire is three days old. The strait is mined. Iran controls who enters. The US decommissioned its minesweepers last year. And tomorrow, the two sides sit down in Islamabad to negotiate what “open” actually means.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

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→ April 9: Iran Published Chart Showing “Danger Zone” Over Normal Shipping Lanes (AP)

→ April 10: Kpler Estimates Maximum 10-15 Ships Per Day Can Transit. Pre-War: 135+ (Kpler Via Al Jazeera)

→ April 10: Trump: Iran Doing “A Very Poor Job” Of Opening Hormuz (Truth Social Via Al Jazeera)

→ April 9: Only 2 Oil Tankers Have Transited Since Ceasefire, One Was Iranian (Kpler Via CNBC)

→ April 9: 7 Ships Transited Thursday (Kpler Via Al Jazeera)

→ April 10: 600+ Vessels Including 325 Tankers Stranded In The Gulf (Lloyd’s List Via Al Jazeera)

→ April 10: ~3,200 Vessels With ~20,000 Seafarers Still Stuck West Of Hormuz (Windward)

→ March 2026: Iran Laid “A Few Dozen” Mines In Hormuz, Maham-3 And Maham-7 Types (CNN, CBS News)

→ Iran Mine Stockpile Estimated At 2,000 To 6,000 (CBS News)

→ Late 2025: US Decommissioned All 4 Avenger-Class Minesweepers From Bahrain (19FortyFive, CS Monitor)

→ The 2 LCS Replacements (USS Tulsa, USS Santa Barbara) Are In Asia, Not The Gulf (The War Zone)

→ April 11: Islamabad Negotiations Begin. Vance, Witkoff, Kushner Leading US Side.

🛢️ The Story

The ceasefire says the strait is open. Iran published a map that says part of it is mined. The country that says it will guarantee safe passage decommissioned its minesweepers last year. And three days in, the president himself says Iran is doing “a very poor job.”

Iran began laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz in early March, according to CNN, citing two people familiar with US intelligence reporting. CBS News reported that Iran was using smaller crafts carrying two to three mines each. The mines deployed have been identified by open-source intelligence as Maham-3 and Maham-7, according to Gulf News. The Maham-3 is a moored mine using magnetic and acoustic sensors. The Maham-7 is a seabed mine designed to evade sonar detection. Both are equipped with triggers that allow them to detect and detonate near passing ships, according to Gulf News. CNN reported that Iran still retains 80% to 90% of its small boats and minelayers, meaning it could feasibly lay hundreds more mines. Iran’s total mine stockpile is estimated at 2,000 to 6,000, according to CBS News.

On March 10, US Central Command destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers near the strait, according to CENTCOM via CNBC. But by that point, mines had already been laid. On Wednesday, April 9, Iranian semiofficial news agencies ISNA and Tasnim published a chart of the Strait of Hormuz showing a large “danger zone” marked over the Traffic Separation Scheme, the internationally agreed shipping lanes that vessels have used for decades, according to the Associated Press. The chart directed ships to travel further north through waters closer to Iran’s mainland near Larak Island. The AP reported that the chart suggests the IRGC “put sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz during the war.”

Radio warnings broadcast to vessels in the region instruct captains to seek permission from Iranian naval forces and to follow alternative northerly routes, avoiding “areas of danger” potentially seeded with mines, according to HNGN via Reuters.

On Thursday, Kpler analysts estimated that safe transit capacity is constrained to a maximum of 10 to 15 passages per day if the ceasefire holds, according to Al Jazeera. Before the war, more than 135 ships crossed the strait daily, according to Kpler. That represents a reduction of more than 89% from normal vessel traffic.

The US Navy’s ability to clear the mines is severely limited. In late 2025, the US decommissioned all four Avenger-class minesweepers that were stationed in Bahrain, according to 19FortyFive and the Christian Science Monitor. These were the Navy’s dedicated mine countermeasures vessels for the Gulf. Their replacements, the Independence-class Littoral Combat Ships USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara, configured for minesweeping, are currently in Asia, not the Gulf, according to The War Zone via 19FortyFive. The Christian Science Monitor reported that during tests off the California coast, the LCS ships’ unmanned underwater vehicles “often failed to detect mines, or mistakenly ‘saw’ mines that weren’t there.” The UK has agreed to send minesweeping drones to the region, according to The Guardian, but they have not yet arrived.

On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that three Chinese oil tankers approached the strait as the first real test of the ceasefire for oil traffic. The Cospearl Lake, a VLCC linked to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping, and He Rong Hai, owned by a smaller entity, were traveling east at near-top speeds before coming to a virtual halt, according to Bloomberg. A third Cosco-linked VLCC, the Yuan Hua Hu, began its eastward journey a few hours later. As of Thursday, they had not completed transit. Shipping companies are “basically waiting until others test” passage, Flexport’s Phil Manders told CNN. “Oil tankers and vessels of Chinese origin will likely test these waters first,” Manders said.

ADNOC CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said Thursday: “This moment requires clarity. So let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled. Iran has made clear, through both its statements and actions, that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage. That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion,” according to CNBC.

Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith told CNBC that just two tankers, one of which was Iranian, have transited the waterway since the ceasefire was announced. S&P Global Market Intelligence reported nine vessels total across Wednesday and Thursday, according to NBC News. More than 600 vessels, including 325 tankers, remain stranded in the Gulf, according to Lloyd’s List via Al Jazeera. Windward reported that approximately 3,200 vessels with approximately 20,000 seafarers remain west of Hormuz, including nearly 800 tankers and cargo ships.

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett told Fox Business on Thursday that getting “one of those big tankers through” would be “a huge chunk of what’s missing” because “that’s 2 million barrels,” according to CNBC. Kpler’s Amena Bakr noted that since the war began, “hundreds of millions of barrels have been taken off the market due to an inability to be shipped out of the Persian Gulf,” according to CNBC.

On Friday morning, Trump posted on Truth Social: “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz,” according to Al Jazeera. Brent crude stood at $96.39 as of early Friday, according to Al Jazeera.

Related Coverage:

The Ceasefire Arrived. The Strait Didn’t Open. Then Iran Hit The Pipeline.

Hormuz Is More Than 90% Closed. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Just Threatened to Close the Bab El-Mandeb. If Both Chokepoints Shut, the Only Alternative Route Disappears. There Is No Third Option.

Goldman Sachs Just Called This “The Largest Supply Shock in the History of the Global Crude Market.”

Hapag-Lloyd, the fifth-largest shipping company in the world, has six container ships trapped in the strait and is “currently refraining” from transiting, according to CNBC. “Returning to normal for our industry is weeks away,” Hapag-Lloyd communications chief Nils Haupt told CNBC. Maersk said the ceasefire “does not yet provide full maritime certainty,” according to CNBC. An oil industry source told CNN: “You also must have a willingness of empty tankers to come back in through the strait, refill and then go back out. That whole process takes several days.”

Analysts say recovery will take months, not weeks. Lale Akoner, a global market analyst at eToro, told CNN it could take six months to normalize traffic. Nikos Petrakakos, managing director at maritime investment manager Tufton, told CNBC: “In the Red Sea with the Houthis, the ceasefire agreement was last January and traffic has not returned.” Jennifer Parker, writing in The Conversation, stated: “Shipping will return to the Strait of Hormuz not when it is declared open, but when it is assessed to be safe enough.”

What the mines, the missing minesweepers, the 10-to-15-ship transit constraint, and the Islamabad negotiations mean for every shipowner with a vessel west of Hormuz, is below.

📊 By The Numbers

→ “A Few Dozen”: Mines Laid In Hormuz By Iran (CNN)

→ Maham-3, Maham-7: Mine Types Deployed, Magnetic/Acoustic And Seabed (Gulf News)

→ 2,000-6,000: Iran’s Estimated Total Mine Stockpile (CBS News)

→ 80-90%: Iran’s Small Boats And Minelayers Still Intact (CNN)

→ 16: Iranian Minelayers Destroyed By US On March 10 (CENTCOM Via CNBC)

→ 4: Avenger-Class Minesweepers Decommissioned From Bahrain In Late 2025 (19FortyFive, CS Monitor)

→ 0: US Dedicated Minesweepers Currently In The Gulf (19FortyFive, The War Zone)

→ 10-15: Maximum Estimated Daily Ship Transits Under Current Conditions (Kpler Via Al Jazeera)

→ 135+: Ships Per Day Through Hormuz Pre-War (Kpler)

→ 2: Oil Tankers Transited Since Ceasefire, One Was Iranian (Kpler Via CNBC)

→ 7: Ships Transited Thursday (Kpler Via Al Jazeera)

→ 325: Tankers Stranded In The Gulf (Lloyd’s List Via Al Jazeera)

→ ~3,200: Vessels Still Stuck West Of Hormuz (Windward)

→ ~20,000: Seafarers Awaiting Evacuation (Windward, IMO)

→ $96.39: Brent Crude Friday Morning (Al Jazeera)

→ 6 Months: Estimated Time To Normalize Traffic (eToro Via CNN)

🔍 Why It Matters

The mines change everything. A ceasefire can be negotiated. Insurance can be restored. Tolls can be debated. But mines in the water are a physical

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

On Tuesday night, April 7, the United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan. Oil prices crashed more than 15%. Brent fell from $109 to approximately $94 per barrel. WTI plunged from approximately $113 to approximately $96, according to Trading Economics. On Wednesday morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters: “The strait is open.” Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine said: “I believe so, based on the diplomatic negotiation,” according to CNBC. The shipping data tells a different story. Five bulk carriers transited the Strait of Hormuz on the morning of April 8, all via the IRGC-controlled corridor near Larak Island, according to Windward Maritime Intelligence. No oil tankers. No blue-chip operators. No major oil companies. Before the war, approximately 135 ships crossed the strait daily, according to Kpler. Then, hours after the ceasefire announcement, a drone struck a pumping station along Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, the only high-capacity alternative to Hormuz, according to Bloomberg and the Financial Times. The pipeline was running at 7 million barrels per day of emergency capacity at the time of the strike, according to OilPrice.com. The ceasefire arrived. The strait didn’t open. And then the backup got hit.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

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→ April 7: US-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire Announced, Brokered By Pakistan (CNBC, Al Jazeera)

→ April 8: Brent Crashes To ~$94, Down 15%. WTI Crashes To ~$96, Down 15%. (Trading Economics)

→ April 8: Hegseth Says “The Strait Is Open.” (CNBC)

→ April 8: 5 Bulk Carriers Transited Hormuz. Zero Oil Tankers. All Via IRGC Corridor. (Windward)

→ Pre-War: ~135 Ships Per Day Through Hormuz (Kpler)

→ April 8: ~3,200 Vessels With ~20,000 Seafarers Still Stuck West Of Hormuz (Windward)

→ April 8: 800+ Vessels Trapped In The Persian Gulf (Bloomberg)

→ April 8: East-West Pipeline Drone Struck At 1 PM Local Time. Pumping Station Hit. (Bloomberg, FT)

→ April 8: IRGC Attacked A Commercial Vessel With A Qadir Cruise Missile During Ceasefire (Windward)

→ April 8: Iran Halted Tanker Traffic After Israel Struck Lebanon (Fars Via CNBC)

🛢️ The Story

Three things happened on April 8, the first full day of the ceasefire, that show the gap between what Washington is saying and what the shipping data shows.

First, the strait did not open. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on X that safe passage would be possible “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations,” according to CNBC. He did not define what those technical limitations are. Windward Maritime Intelligence reported that five bulk carriers were tracked outbound as of 12:00 on April 8, all confined to the IRGC-controlled corridor near Larak Island. No blue-chip operators were present and major oil majors were absent, according to Windward. The cohort “reflects the same risk-tolerant operator profile seen throughout the blockade, not a return of mainstream commercial shipping,” Windward reported. Coordination with Iranian armed forces is still required for all transits, according to Windward. Insurance coverage for war-risk exclusions remains a blocking constraint. Approximately 3,200 vessels with approximately 20,000 seafarers remain west of Hormuz, including nearly 800 tankers and cargo ships, according to Windward. Bloomberg reported that just three ships were observed leaving the region on Wednesday and that the strait “remained largely blocked.” Bloomberg reported that more than 800 freighters are stuck inside the Gulf.

A shipping executive told CNBC: “We have no information about how we could transit the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire. We are not in contact with the Iranian authorities. The most important for us is the safety of our crew members, and if we were deciding to transit, we need absolute guarantees about the safety of our crew members.”

A senior shipping executive told IBTimes: “This is not a full reopening. It’s a cautious thaw. Insurance premiums are still sky-high, and no one wants to be the test case if things go wrong again.”

Iran’s state news agency Fars reported later on April 8 that oil tanker traffic through the strait has been halted after Israel attacked Lebanon, according to CNBC. The White House denied the strait was closed, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt telling reporters: “This is a case of, what they’re saying publicly is different privately,” and that “we have seen an uptick of traffic in the strait today,” according to CNBC. Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith told CNBC the strait may see only “10 to 15 vessels, given that Iran is still vetting who goes through,” which would be a similar pace to recent days during the war.

Second, the IRGC attacked a commercial vessel during the ceasefire. The IRGC claimed responsibility for striking a vessel with a Qadir cruise missile, describing it as “an Israeli ship,” according to Windward. The vessel is owned by Chartworld and was previously time-chartered by ZIM, the Israeli container carrier, until October 2023, according to Windward. That expired charter arrangement is the likely basis for the IRGC’s classification. The vessel has no current Israeli commercial connection, according to Windward. The attack occurred within hours of ceasefire negotiations concluding, “confirming that the IRGC was conducting strikes on commercial vessels up to, and potentially through, the ceasefire window,” Windward reported.

Third, the East-West pipeline was struck by a drone. At approximately 1:00 PM local time on April 8, a drone struck a pumping station along Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, the 1,200-kilometer Petroline system running from Abqaiq to Yanbu, according to Bloomberg and the Financial Times. The pipeline was running at its emergency capacity of 7 million barrels per day to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz, according to OilPrice.com. Bloomberg reported the damage was limited and contained. One source told Investing.com the pipeline was not shut down. Saudi Aramco declined to comment, according to Bloomberg.

The pipeline has an emergency expanded capacity of 7 million barrels per day, according to OilPrice.com. Actual crude exports via Yanbu have averaged approximately 5 million barrels per day, according to Investing.com. This was not the first time the pipeline has been targeted. In May 2019, IRGC-directed drones launched from Iraq struck the same pipeline system, in what the Washington Institute identified as a rehearsal for the Abqaiq attack four months later.

The Dallas Fed warned in March 2026 that Yanbu is “within range of both Iranian and Houthi missiles from Yemen, as are the waterways in the Red Sea.” That warning materialized on ceasefire day.

Related Coverage:

Hormuz Is More Than 90% Closed. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Just Threatened to Close the Bab El-Mandeb. If Both Chokepoints Shut, the Only Alternative Route Disappears. There Is No Third Option.

Goldman Sachs Just Called This “The Largest Supply Shock in the History of the Global Crude Market.”

MSC × Sinokor: 40% of the World’s Available Supertankers. $3.3 Billion. Zero Antitrust Investigations. Now It’s Official.

Oil prices are pricing a headline. The shipping industry is pricing reality. Brent fell 15% on the ceasefire announcement. But the strait has not reopened. The pipeline that bypasses the strait has been attacked. The IRGC is still hitting ships. Iran is still controlling who transits and when. War risk insurance has not been restored. 3,200 vessels are still stuck. And negotiations do not begin until Saturday in Islamabad.

What the gap between the oil price and the shipping data means for tanker rates, gas prices, and every vessel owner with a ship in the Persian Gulf, is below.

📊 By The Numbers

→ 15%: Brent Price Crash On Ceasefire Announcement, From $109 To ~$94 (Trading Economics)

→ 15%: WTI Price Crash, From $113 To ~$96 (Trading Economics)

→ 5: Vessels Transiting Hormuz On April 8, All Bulk Carriers, All Via IRGC Corridor (Windward)

→ 0: Oil Tankers Transiting Hormuz On April 8 (Windward)

→ 0: Blue-Chip Operators Transiting Hormuz On April 8 (Windward)

→ ~135: Ships Per Day Through Hormuz Pre-War (Kpler)

→ ~3,200: Vessels Still Stuck West Of Hormuz (Windward)

→ ~20,000: Seafarers Awaiting Evacuation (Windward, IMO)

→ 800+: Freighters Trapped Inside The Persian Gulf (Bloomberg)

→ 7 Mbd: East-West Pipeline Capacity At Time Of Drone Strike (OilPrice.com)

→ 1: Commercial Vessel Attacked By IRGC During Ceasefire (Windward)

→ 2 Weeks: Ceasefire Duration. Negotiations Begin Saturday In Islamabad.

🔍 Why It Matters

The ceasefire is a diplomatic event. It is not a shipping event. The difference between the two is the story.

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On Friday, April 3, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, posted two questions on X: “What share of global oil, LNG, wheat, rice, and fertilizer shipments transits the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?” and “Which countries and companies account for the highest transit volumes through the strait?” according to NBC News. The questions were rhetorical. The threat was not. The Strait of Hormuz, which carried 20 million barrels of oil per day before the war, is more than 90% closed, with only 12 vessels transiting on April 2 versus approximately 138 pre-war, according to JMIC and UANI data. The Bab el-Mandeb, which carried approximately 4.2 million barrels per day in 2025 according to the IEA via The Conversation, is the route Saudi Arabia is using to bypass the closed Hormuz. If both chokepoints close, the workaround for the first crisis runs directly through the second crisis. And there is no third option.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

📊 Get The Deep Water Report

→ Global Tanker Market Outlook Q2 2026

📋 Competency-Based Maritime Training

→ SwiftAction

📌 Gosships Data Card

→ Strait Of Hormuz Pre-War: ~20 Million Barrels Per Day, ~20% Of Global Oil (EIA)

→ Strait Of Hormuz Now: More Than 90% Closed, 12 Transits Vs. 138 Pre-War (JMIC/UANI)

→ Bab El-Mandeb Pre-War: ~4.2 Million Barrels Per Day, ~5% Of Global Oil (IEA Via The Conversation)

→ Bab El-Mandeb March 2026: 3.97 Mbd Transited, Highest Since October 2023 (Kpler)

→ Yanbu Loadings March 2026: 3.23 Mbd, Highest On Record. Pre-War: 750-850 Kbd (Kpler)

→ East-West Pipeline: 5 Mbd Normal Capacity, Temporarily Expanded To 7 Mbd In 2019 (EIA)

→ Russian Crude Via Bab El-Mandeb: ~1.9 Mbd (Kpler)

→ World Already Short ~13 Mbd From Hormuz Closure (Kpler Via ABC News)

→ Combined Trade At Risk If Both Close: ~$10 Billion Per Day (Middle East Insider)

→ Macquarie: 40% Chance Oil Hits $200 By June (CBS News)

🛢️ The Story

The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb are not two separate crises. They are one system. Understanding why requires understanding the geography.

The Strait of Hormuz sits at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, between Iran and Oman. Before the war, approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day transited the strait, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Approximately 84% of that crude went to Asian markets, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea as the top destinations, according to the EIA. The strait also carried over 20% of global LNG trade, primarily from Qatar, according to the EIA.

Iran effectively closed Hormuz on March 1. Traffic has collapsed more than 90%. Only 12 vessels transited on April 2, according to JMIC and UANI. Lloyd’s List tracked 33 transits via Iran’s Larak Island toll corridor in the second half of March, but zero transits through the normal southern route, according to CBS News. The world is currently short approximately 13 million barrels per day that once flowed through Hormuz, according to Kpler’s lead oil analyst Matt Smith via ABC News.

Saudi Arabia’s response was the East-West pipeline. The 1,200-kilometer Petroline runs from the Abqaiq oil processing center near the Persian Gulf to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. The pipeline has a normal capacity of 5 million barrels per day, according to the EIA. Saudi Aramco temporarily expanded the pipeline’s capacity to 7 million barrels per day in 2019 by converting some natural gas liquids pipelines to accept crude oil, according to the EIA. In March 2026, Yanbu loaded 3.23 million barrels per day of crude, the highest level on record and roughly four times its pre-war average of 750 to 850 thousand barrels per day, according to Kpler. The UAE also operates a 1.5 to 1.8 million barrel per day pipeline from Habshan to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing Hormuz, according to Al Jazeera. Fujairah exports averaged 1.62 million barrels per day in March, up from 1.17 million in February, according to Kpler via Al Jazeera.

These pipelines are the world’s only workaround. And both exit points face threats.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait sits on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula from Hormuz, between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the Horn of Africa. It is 30 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, according to The Conversation. In 2025, approximately 4.2 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum liquids crossed the strait per day, roughly 5% of global production, according to the IEA via The Conversation. In March 2026, Kpler recorded 3.97 million barrels per day transiting the strait, the highest since October 2023, driven by the surge in Yanbu loadings. Of this, 1.75 million barrels per day was loaded at Yanbu and 1.79 million barrels per day was Russian crude bound for Asia, according to Kpler.

The Bab el-Mandeb is the southern gateway to the Red Sea. Every barrel loaded at Yanbu that is bound for Asia must pass through it. Every LNG cargo from Qatar that was rerouted through the Red Sea must pass through it. The strait is not an alternative to Hormuz. It is the exit ramp from the alternative to Hormuz.

On March 28, the Houthis entered the war, launching ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time since the conflict began, according to Kpler and The Conversation. Bloomberg reported that Iran is pushing the Houthis to prepare for a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping. An unnamed Houthi leader told Reuters that the group remains “fully militarily ready with all options,” according to Al Jazeera. Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency quoted an unnamed Iranian military source saying Iran could open a new front in the Bab el-Mandeb if attacks are carried out on Iranian territory, according to Al Jazeera.

The Houthis have proven they can disrupt the strait. In late 2023 and 2024, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping forced major container lines to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 15 days to transit times from the Arabian Sea to Europe, according to the EIA. Houthi capabilities have expanded since then. They now possess Iranian-supplied anti-ship ballistic missiles with 200-kilometer range, sea-skimming cruise missiles, and one-way attack drones, according to the Middle East Insider. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb dropped from 9.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to approximately 4.1 million in 2024 after the initial Houthi campaign, according to the EIA via Anadolu Agency. The Houthis proved in 2024 that they can severely disrupt the strait, cutting traffic by more than half.

Related Coverage:

Goldman Sachs Just Called This “The Largest Supply Shock in the History of the Global Crude Market.”

MSC × Sinokor: 40% of the World’s Available Supertankers. $3.3 Billion. Zero Antitrust Investigations. Now It’s Official.

Iran Built a Toll Booth on the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC Is Charging $2 Million Per Ship.

Now do the math nobody is doing publicly.

Hormuz carried 20 million barrels per day. The world has recovered approximately 7 million barrels per day through pipelines, strategic reserves, and the Larak toll corridor, leaving a shortfall of approximately 13 million barrels per day, according to Kpler via ABC News. Of the 7 million barrels recovered, the single largest source is Yanbu, which loaded 3.23 million barrels per day in March, according to Kpler. Every Yanbu barrel bound for Asia transits the Bab el-Mandeb.

If the Houthis close the Bab el-Mandeb, those 3.23 million barrels per day either stop moving or reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 50 days to Middle East to East Asia voyage times, more than double the current transit, according to Kpler. The 1.9 million barrels per day of Russian crude also transiting the strait would face the same choice. The approximately 7 million barrels per day of partial recovery from the Hormuz closure collapses to roughly 2 to 3 million barrels per day, all flowing through the UAE’s Fujairah pipeline and whatever trickles through Hormuz via the Larak toll corridor.

The world would then be short approximately 17 to 18 million barrels per day of its pre-war supply from the region. That is not an oil crisis. That is the removal of approximately 17% of global oil supply with no replacement available at any price in any timeframe measured in weeks.

If both Yanbu and Fujairah were compromised, moving oil out of the Arabian Peninsula would become “virtually impossible,” according to energy analyst Ben Smith, as quoted by ABC News. Analysts at Macquarie are warning of a 40% chance that oil could hit $200 per barrel by June if both chokepoints are disrupted, according to CBS News. JPMorgan analysts estimate that problems with Bab el-Mandeb passage alone could add $20 per barrel to oil prices, according to ABC News.

The combined trade at risk if both straits close simultaneously is estimated at approximately $10 billion per day, according to the Middle East Insider. Approximately 30% of global container shipping would be blocked from normal routing, according to the Middle East Insider. Approximately 22% of global oil supply would face transit disruption when combining Hormuz’s roughly 20% and Bab el-Mandeb’s roughly 5%, with some overlap for Gulf producers routing through both, according to the Middle East Insider.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published research in March 2026 warning that “a complete cessation of oil exports from the Gulf region amounts to removing close to 20 percent of global oil supplies from the market, about 80 percent of which is shipped to Asia,” according to the Dallas Fed. The Dallas Fed noted that Yanbu is “within range of both Iranian and Houthi missiles from Yemen, as are the waterways in the Red Sea.”

What the dual chokepoint scenario means for VLCC rates, for gas prices, for the countries that run out of oil first, and for the tanker operators who will be asked to move through both straits, is below.

📊 By The Numbers

→ 20 Mbd: Pre-War Hormuz Oil Flow (EIA)

→ 4.2 Mbd: Pre-War Bab El-Mandeb Oil Flow (IEA Via The Conversation)

→ 91%: Hormuz Traffic Collapse, 12 Transits Vs. 138 Pre-War (JMIC/UANI)

→ 13 Mbd: Current Shortfall From Hormuz Closure Alone (Kpler Via ABC News)

→ 3.23 Mbd: Yanbu Loadings March 2026, Highest On Record (Kpler)

→ 1.9 Mbd: Russian Crude Transiting Bab El-Mandeb (Kpler)

→ 50 Days: MEG-Asia Voyage If Bab El-Mandeb Closes And Ships Reroute Via Cape (Kpler)

→ $10 Billion/Day: Combined Trade At Risk (Middle East Insider)

→ $200/Barrel: Macquarie Warning, 40% Probability By June (CBS News)

→ $20/Barrel: JPMorgan Estimated Price Impact Of Bab El-Mandeb Disruption Alone (ABC News)

→ 22%: Global Oil Supply At Risk From Dual Closure (Middle East Insider)

🔍 Why It Matters

The dual chokepoint scenario is not theoretical. One chokepoint is already

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On Thursday, April 2, WTI crude settled at $111.54 per barrel, surging 11.41% in a single session, the highest level since June 2022, according to CNBC. Brent settled at $109.03. For the first time since before 2011, WTI traded above Brent, inverting a benchmark structure that has defined global oil pricing for 15 years, according to OilPrice.com and Rigzone. On Friday, April 3, Iran shot down a U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle over Iranian territory, the first manned American combat aircraft loss of the war, according to ABC News, NBC News, and CNN. One crew member was rescued by U.S. special forces inside Iran. The status of the second remains unknown. Markets were closed for Good Friday. Brent was indicated at approximately $112 in early electronic trading on April 3, according to Fortune. The F-15E shootdown occurred later that day with markets closed for Good Friday. The April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz arrives Sunday. OPEC+ meets Saturday. Nobody knows what oil prices do when markets reopen Monday morning.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

  ---

📊 Get The Deep Water Report

→ Global Tanker Market Outlook Q2 2026

📋 Competency-Based Maritime Training

→ SwiftAction

📌 Gosships Data Card

→ April 2: WTI Settles At $111.54, Surges 11.41%, Highest Since June 2022 (CNBC)

→ April 2: Brent Settles At $109.03. WTI Surpasses Brent For First Time In 15 Years (OilPrice.com, Rigzone)

→ April 2: WTI Prompt Spread Exceeds $16/Barrel, Widest On Record (Bloomberg Via Rigzone)

→ April 2: Dated Brent Spot Hits $141, Highest Since 2008 (S&P Global Via CNBC)

→ April 2: Gas Hits $4.08/Gallon, First Above $4 Since August 2022, Up $1.10 In Five Weeks (AAA)

→ April 3: F-15E Strike Eagle Shot Down Over Iran, First Manned US Combat Aircraft Loss (ABC News, NBC News, CNN)

→ April 3: A-10 Thunderbolt Struck By Iranian Fire, Crashes In Kuwait. Pilot Rescued. (NBC News, ABC News)

→ April 3: Two Black Hawk Helicopters Hit During Search And Rescue (NBC News)

→ April 3: Iran Parliament Speaker Threatens Bab El-Mandeb Strait (NBC News)

→ April 6: Trump Deadline For Hormuz. No Extension Announced.

🛢️ The Story

Three things happened in 48 hours that the oil market has never experienced simultaneously.

First, the benchmark structure broke. WTI crude has traded at a discount to Brent for as long as most traders have been in the market. Brent is the seaborne benchmark. It prices two-thirds of the world’s traded crude. WTI is the landlocked American benchmark, delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma. On Thursday, WTI settled at $111.54 per barrel while Brent settled at $109.03, according to CNBC. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, told Rigzone that WTI “is trading at a rare premium over Brent crude,” calling it “a reversal of the typical market structure where Brent usually trades several dollars higher.” The reason: “WTI is currently the primary vehicle for traders betting on the duration of U.S. involvement” in the Iran conflict, Hogan told Rigzone. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, told Rigzone the market saw “record backwardation in WTI.” Flynn noted part of the spread reflects technical factors, including WTI’s May contract trading against Brent’s already-rolled June contract and holiday-related position unwinding, according to Rigzone. But the structural driver, the market pricing accessible barrels over seaborne barrels, is real.

The numbers behind Thursday’s session were historic by multiple measures. WTI’s prompt spread, the difference between its two nearest contracts, exceeded $16 per barrel, the widest premium on record, according to Bloomberg via Rigzone. Dated Brent, the benchmark for physical oil transactions, surged to $141 per barrel, the highest since 2008, according to S&P Global via CNBC. CNBC reported the physical spot price was $32.33 higher than the Brent futures contract, a gap that reflects the extreme scarcity of actual barrels available for delivery. WTI crude has roughly doubled since the start of the year, according to Rigzone. BMI analysts, writing in a report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group, called Brent “primarily a paper market” that has been “cushioned by its geographic location and benchmark composition.”

The trigger for Thursday’s surge was Trump’s April 1 address to the nation. In a roughly 20-minute speech from the White House Cross Hall, Trump declared the war “nearing completion” within two to three weeks, vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard,” and stated the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “naturally” after the conflict ends, according to NPR, CNN, and CNBC. He offered no timeline for reopening the strait and no mention of negotiations. Hogan told Rigzone that the biggest driver of the April 2 surge was that Trump’s address “brought with it no line of sight to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” French President Emmanuel Macron said it would be “unrealistic to use military means to reopen the strait,” according to Bloomberg via Rigzone.

At the gas pump, AAA reported the national average at $4.08 per gallon on April 2, the first time above $4.00 since August 2022. The national average has risen $1.10 in five weeks from $2.98 on February 26, according to AAA. California reached $5.94 per gallon.

Second, the war escalated. On Friday, April 3, less than 48 hours after Trump told Americans that Iran has “no anti-aircraft equipment” and its “radar is 100% annihilated,” Iran shot down an F-15E Strike Eagle from the 494th Fighter Squadron based at RAF Lakenheath, UK, according to ABC News, NBC News, and CNN. One crew member was rescued by U.S. special forces inside Iranian territory. The status of the second crew member remains unknown, according to NBC News. A search and rescue operation is ongoing.

The F-15E was not the only aircraft hit. An A-10 Thunderbolt providing close air support for the rescue mission was struck by Iranian fire and crashed in Kuwait. The pilot ejected and was rescued, according to NBC News. Two UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters involved in the search and rescue were also struck by incoming fire. Crew members sustained injuries but both helicopters returned to base, according to NBC News. In total, Iran caused two U.S. military aircraft to crash and struck two more in a single day, according to ABC News.

NBC News reported that roughly half of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers remain intact and thousands of one-way attack drones remain in its arsenal, according to a U.S. official and a person briefed on the matter. Multiple missile stockpiles buried underground in Iran also remain undamaged. “Even at the rates at which they’re firing things now, they’re going to be able to sustain it for a while,” Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, told NBC News.

Third, Iran escalated its chokepoint threats. On Friday, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, posted on X: “What share of global oil, LNG, wheat, rice, and fertilizer shipments transits the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?” He added: “Which countries and companies account for the highest transit volumes through the strait?” according to NBC News. The Bab el-Mandeb is the second critical energy chokepoint after Hormuz. Houthi forces aligned with Iran have attacked commercial shipping in the strait repeatedly since 2023. If Iran directs the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb while Hormuz remains shut, the world loses access to both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea simultaneously. Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu pipeline terminus, which Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said would reach maximum capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day within days, sits on the Red Sea coast within Houthi missile range.

Related Coverage:

• Goldman Sachs Just Called This “The Largest Supply Shock in the History of the Global Crude Market.”

• MSC × Sinokor: 40% of the World’s Available Supertankers. $3.3 Billion. Zero Antitrust Investigations. Now It’s Official.

• Sinokor Is Charging $20 Per Barrel to Ship Oil. Last Year It Was $2.50. They Control 40% of Available Tankers.

Markets closed Friday for Good Friday. They do not reopen until Monday. The April 6 deadline arrives Sunday. OPEC+ meets Saturday. The F-15E crew member is still missing inside Iran. And no one in the oil market, the tanker market, or the White House has offered a concrete plan for what happens next.

What the convergence of a broken benchmark structure, a military escalation that contradicts the administration’s narrative, a parliamentary threat to close a second chokepoint, and a holiday weekend with the war’s most critical deadline means for tanker rates, gas prices, and every barrel of oil that has to move through a strait controlled by the country that just shot down an American fighter jet, is below.

📊 By The Numbers

→ $111.54/Barrel: WTI Settlement April 2, Highest Since June 2022 (CNBC)

→ $109.03/Barrel: Brent Settlement April 2 (CNBC, OilPrice.com)

→ $141/Barrel: Dated Brent Spot, Highest Since 2008 (S&P Global Via CNBC)

→ $16+/Barrel: WTI Prompt Spread, Widest On Record (Bloomberg Via Rigzone)

→ $4.08/Gallon: National Gas Average, First Above $4 Since August 2022 (AAA)

→ $5.94/Gallon: California Gas Average (AAA) → $1.10/Gallon: Gas Price Increase In Five Weeks (AAA)

→ 11.41%: WTI Single-Session Surge April 2 (CNBC)

→ 4: US Military Aircraft Hit By Iranian Fire In A Single Day (ABC News, NBC News)

→ 2: US Aircraft Destroyed (F-15E, A-10) In A Single Day (NBC News)

→ 1: Crew Member Missing Inside Iran (NBC News)

→ $150/Barrel: JPMorgan Warning If Hormuz Closed Through Mid-May (JPMorgan Via Rigzone, OilPrice.com)

→ 72 Hours: Until April 6 Deadline. No Extension.

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On March 19, competition filings in Cyprus and Greece confirmed that Mediterranean Shipping Company, the world’s largest container shipping company, is acquiring a 50% stake in Sinokor Maritime’s tanker business through its Luxembourg subsidiary SAS Shipping Agencies Services, according to Bloomberg, Splash247, and TradeWinds. The investment framework agreement was signed on February 2, according to Splash247. The deal gives MSC joint control with Sinokor founder Ga-Hyun Chung over the largest VLCC fleet ever assembled by a single operator. Bloomberg estimates the combined entity will control approximately 150 VLCCs, commanding roughly 40% of available supertankers when the sanctioned shadow fleet is excluded, according to Bloomberg as reported by iMarine News. Neither MSC nor Sinokor has commented publicly. The deal is pending final regulatory approval.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

  ---

📊 Get The Deep Water Report

→ Global Tanker Market Outlook Q2 2026

📋 Competency-Based Maritime Training

→ SwiftAction

📌 Gosships Data Card

→ February 2: MSC And Sinokor Investment Framework Agreement Signed Unannounced (Splash247)

→ December 2025 To March 2026: Sinokor Acquires 35 Of 45 VLCCs Sold Globally In January, 78% Of All Deals (Veson Nautical)

→ March 19: Cyprus And Greece Competition Filings Confirm MSC 50% Stake In Sinokor (Bloomberg, Splash247, TradeWinds)

→ March 19: MSC Subsidiary SAS Shipping Agencies Services (Luxembourg) Named As Buyer (Cyprus Competition Commission)

→ March 23: 10-VLCC En Bloc Purchase For $668 Million To Buyer Identified As “Korea” (Compass Maritime)

→ March 24: First Three Suezmaxes Purchased At ~$82 Million Each (Xclusiv Shipbrokers Via Splash247)

→ ~150 VLCCs: Bloomberg Estimated Combined Fleet Size (Bloomberg Via iMarine News)

→ ~40%: Estimated Share Of Available Supertankers Excluding Shadow Fleet (Bloomberg Via iMarine News)

→ 100%: Share Of Unfixed VLCC Ballasters In US Gulf Controlled By Sinokor (Signal Ocean Via Lloyd’s List)

→ $3.3 Billion+: Total Spent On VLCC Acquisitions Since December 2025 (Forbes, Veson Nautical)

→ Regulatory Clearance Required In Four Jurisdictions: Cyprus, Greece, South Korea, Norway (Cyprus Shipping News)

🛢️ The Story

Gosships Intelligence covered Sinokor’s expansion into Suezmaxes on March 25. This article examines the MSC partnership specifically and what 40% market control means for the tanker market.

The deal was hiding in plain sight for months. Market participants had reported since late 2025 that some vessels acquired by Sinokor were backed by entities linked to MSC founder Gianluigi Aponte, according to gCaptain. Neither company confirmed it. Brokers speculated. Analysts guessed. On March 19, a routine competition filing in Cyprus ended the speculation.

The Cyprus Competition Commission disclosed that an investment framework agreement had been signed on February 2 between South Korean shipowner Ga-Hyun Chung, SAS Shipping Agencies Services (a Luxembourg-registered entity forming part of the MSC Group), and Sinokor Maritime, according to Splash247. Under the terms, MSC’s SAS Lux vehicle will acquire a 50% stake in Sinokor, with Chung retaining the remaining half and the two parties exercising joint control, according to Splash247 and TradeWinds. Greece’s competition authority published a matching notification on the same day.

The entity being acquired is Janggeum Maritime, the company responsible for Sinokor Merchant Marine Group’s tanker business, according to Cyprus Shipping News. This gives MSC a direct stake not just in VLCCs but across Sinokor’s container, tanker, and dry bulk operations, according to Container Magazine.

Gianluigi Aponte is the secretive Italian-Swiss billionaire who built MSC into the world’s largest container shipping company. MSC operates the largest container fleet on earth. Aponte rarely speaks publicly. He has never given a press conference about the Sinokor deal. Financial terms were not disclosed.

The scale of what MSC is buying into is without precedent. In the opening weeks of 2026, Sinokor acquired 35 out of 45 VLCCs sold globally, absorbing 78% of all transaction volume in the sector, according to Veson Nautical. The company paid 10 to 15% above prevailing market valuations to lock down sellers, according to Gibson Shipbrokers. Forbes reported that $3.3 billion had changed hands for at least 60 tankers by March, citing Veson Nautical data.

BRS, the Paris-based broker, calculated that Sinokor controls 118 VLCCs either through ownership or time charter, representing 13% of the total active VLCC fleet and 16% of the mainstream non-sanctioned fleet, according to BRS. BRS stated: “There has never before been a single VLCC operator with such a dominant market share of the active fleet.” Lloyd’s List reported that 49 VLCCs had been purchased by Sinokor and MSC since December. On March 23, Compass Maritime reported an en bloc sale of 10 VLCCs to a buyer identified as “Korea” for $668 million, according to Compass Maritime. The buyer was not named, but the timing, vessel type, and Korean origin are consistent with the Sinokor-MSC acquisition pattern. The buying has not stopped.

The concentration is most extreme in the Atlantic Basin. Signal Ocean analyst Georgios Sakellariou told Lloyd’s List that of 21 VLCCs positioned to load in the US Gulf over a 30-day window, 14 were Sinokor-controlled. Of 13 unfixed VLCCs in ballast, 100% were Sinokor-controlled. Sakellariou said: “There is literally no tonnage replenishment in the Atlantic that is not Sinokor.”

Bloomberg estimates that the combined entity will ultimately control approximately 150 VLCCs, commanding a market share of roughly 40% when the sanctioned shadow fleet is excluded, according to iMarine News citing Bloomberg. Cyprus Shipping News reported the figure at 130 to 150 VLCCs, accounting for 14 to 17% of the approximately 880 VLCCs worldwide. Signal Ocean projected that Sinokor independently controls at least 24% of the global compliant VLCC spot fleet, according to Signal Ocean.

The pricing power is already visible. Sinokor’s Ga-Hyun Chung has been asking 700 Worldscale points for VLCC fixtures, roughly $20 per barrel on the Middle East to China route, according to Bloomberg and Signal Ocean. A year ago, the same route cost $2.50 per barrel. Fearnleys called Sinokor the “kingpin” of the VLCC trades.

The deal has not yet received full approval. Greece and Cyprus have formally accepted the filing. Cyprus Shipping News reported on March 25 that regulatory approval is also required from South Korea and Norway. South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission was notified in approximately February, according to Business Korea via Cyprus Shipping News. No formal antitrust investigation has been opened in any jurisdiction. Regulatory approval from multiple jurisdictions is required prior to completion, according to iMarine News.

What 40% market control means for every VLCC broker who depends on spot availability, for every commodity trader whose book is priced on competitive freight, and for the structural question of whether one entity can set the price of moving oil, is below.

📊 By The Numbers

→ ~150 VLCCs: Bloomberg Estimated Combined Fleet Size (Bloomberg Via iMarine News)

→ ~40%: Estimated Share Of Available Supertankers Excluding Shadow Fleet (Bloomberg Via iMarine News)

→ 24%: Sinokor’s Share Of Compliant VLCC Spot Fleet (Signal Ocean)

→ 100%: Share Of Unfixed VLCC Ballasters In US Gulf Controlled By Sinokor (Signal Ocean Via Lloyd’s List)

→ 78%: Share Of All VLCC Sales In January 2026 Acquired By Sinokor (Veson Nautical)

→ $3.3 Billion+: Total Spent On VLCC Acquisitions Since December 2025 (Forbes, Veson Nautical)

→ $668 Million: 10-VLCC En Bloc Purchase, March 23 (Compass Maritime)

→ $20/Barrel: Sinokor’s Indicated VLCC Rate, MEG To China. One Year Ago: $2.50 (Bloomberg, Signal Ocean)

→ $82 Million Each: First Three Suezmax Purchases, March 24 (Xclusiv Shipbrokers Via Splash247)

→ 4: Jurisdictions Requiring Regulatory Clearance (Cyprus Shipping News)

→ 0: Formal Antitrust Investigations Opened As Of April 1

🔍 Why It Matters

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The global oil market is now exposed to simultaneous pressure across three critical export nodes for the first time in modern history, according to Windward’s March 30 maritime intelligence analysis. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under IRGC control, with transit volumes down 90 to 95% since the war began on February 28, according to Kpler and CBS News. Russia’s Ust-Luga port on the Baltic Sea has sustained its fifth Ukrainian drone attack in seven days, according to Bloomberg and gCaptain. Reuters reported on March 25 that at least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity, approximately 2 million barrels per day, is at a halt, calling it “the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia.” And on March 28, Yemen’s Houthis launched their first missile strikes on Israel since the war began, according to PBS and CNN, threatening to extend their campaign to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the chokepoint that controls access to the Suez Canal and through which Saudi Arabia’s entire Yanbu bypass must flow. Combined disruption potential across all three chokepoints: approximately 27 million barrels per day. The IEA’s March 12 Oil Market Report characterized the Hormuz closure alone as the largest supply disruption in the global oil market’s history. Since then, two additional chokepoints have come under pressure.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

  ---

📊 Get The Deep Water Report

→ Global Tanker Market Outlook Q2 2026

📋 Competency-Based Maritime Training

→ SwiftAction

📌 Gosships Data Card

→ Hormuz: Transit Down 90-95% Since February 28. ~2,000 Vessels Stranded. 20,000 Seafarers Stuck. (Kpler, CBS News, IMO)

→ Ust-Luga: 5th Ukrainian Drone Strike In 7 Days. Fire At Novatek Oil Storage Tanks. (Bloomberg, gCaptain, Kyiv Independent)

→ KINEF Refinery (Kirishi): Complete Halt After Drone Strike. 350,000 Bpd Offline. (Ukrainska Pravda, US News)

→ Russia Export Capacity: 40% Halted, ~2 Million Bpd. “Most Severe Disruption In Modern Russian History.” (Reuters Via NBC News)

→ Houthis: First Missile Strikes On Israel March 28. “Closing Bab Al-Mandab Is A Viable Option.” (PBS, CNN, gCaptain)

→ Saudi Yanbu Bypass: Drone Fell On Samref Refinery. Ballistic Missile Intercepted Near Port. (BNEF)

→ Combined Risk: ~27 Million Bpd Across Three Chokepoints (Windward Analysis, March 30)

🛢️ The Story

Chokepoint 1: Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply normally transits, has been effectively closed since February 28, according to CBS News. Daily transits have fallen from a pre-war average of 138 vessels to near zero for most commercial traffic, according to Kpler. The IRGC declared on March 27 that “the Strait of Hormuz is closed,” banning all traffic “to and from” ports of US and Israeli allies, according to Newsweek. Approximately 2,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers remain stranded, according to the IMO. The IRGC’s toll system has processed 26 approved transits since March 15, with at least two vessels paying approximately $2 million in Chinese yuan, according to Lloyd’s List.

Chokepoint 2: Russia’s Baltic ports

Ukraine has systematically targeted Russia’s two main Baltic oil export terminals over the past week. Ust-Luga sustained its fifth drone attack in seven days on March 29, with fire reported at the port, according to Bloomberg and gCaptain. The March 24-25 overnight attack was Ukraine’s largest drone wave of 2026, setting Novatek’s oil-product storage tanks ablaze and halting crude loadings, according to the Moscow Times. On March 25-26, drones struck the Kirishinefteorgsintez (KINEF) refinery in Kirishi, Leningrad Oblast, causing a complete halt of all operations, according to Ukrainska Pravda. KINEF processes 350,000 barrels per day, representing 6.6% of Russia’s total refining capacity, according to US News and World Report.

Reuters reported on March 25 that at least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity, approximately 2 million barrels per day, is now at a halt, according to NBC News and Kyiv Independent. Combined Baltic ports (Primorsk and Ust-Luga) handled about 45% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports at 1.72 million barrels per day, according to Reuters. Euromaidan Press reported that “the pace suggests Kyiv is trying to destroy Russia’s Baltic oil export ports beyond repair.” Deputy PM Alexander Novak announced on March 27 that Russia will ban gasoline exports from April 1 to meet domestic demand.

Chokepoint 3: Bab al-Mandab

On March 28, Yemen’s Houthis launched their first missile strikes on Israel since the war began, firing ballistic missiles at targets in southern Israel near Beersheba and the Dimona nuclear research center, according to PBS and CNN. Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree announced: “Strikes will continue until the aggression against all fronts of the resistance ceases,” according to CNN. Houthi Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour stated: “Closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait is a viable option, and the consequences will be borne by the American and Israeli aggressors,” according to gCaptain.

This is the threat that connects all three chokepoints. Saudi Arabia activated its East-West Pipeline (Petroline) to bypass Hormuz, pumping 4.6 million barrels per day through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, more than triple the 2025 average, according to Vortexa. But Yanbu’s output must transit the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab to reach Asian markets. If the Houthis close Bab al-Mandab, Saudi Arabia’s entire bypass strategy collapses.

The threat is not hypothetical. A drone fell on Yanbu’s Samref refinery and a ballistic missile was intercepted near the port, according to BloombergNEF. CNN Business headlined on March 30: “The Saudis found an escape hatch for some of the world’s oil. The Houthis could slam it shut.” Horn Review analysis found that 70 to 75% of Yanbu exports are potentially exposed to Houthi interference because approximately 90% load onto VLCCs that must transit Bab al-Mandab.

As of March 30, the Houthis had not resumed attacks on commercial shipping, according to gCaptain. But their missile strikes on Israel and their explicit statements about Bab al-Mandab signal that the third chokepoint is now active.

The combined picture

Add up the three chokepoints and the math is staggering. Hormuz handles approximately 21 million barrels per day. Bab al-Mandab handles approximately 4.8 million barrels per day. Russia’s Baltic ports handle approximately 1.72 million barrels per day. Combined: approximately 27.5 million barrels per day at risk, according to Windward’s March 30 analysis. That is more oil than the United States and Russia produce combined.

The IEA’s March 12 Oil Market Report estimated that nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product exports were already disrupted, with crude production curtailed by at least 8 million barrels per day. That assessment was published before Ust-Luga sustained five drone strikes and before the Houthis entered the war. The situation has worsened since the IEA’s last count.

Goldman Sachs head of Oil Research Daan Struyven projects an adverse scenario Brent peak of $140 and a severely adverse peak of $160, according to Goldman Sachs research. JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva warns of $120 if disruption is prolonged. But those models were built around a single chokepoint. No published forecast accounts for what happens when all three close at once. Brent is trading at $112 to $115 per barrel, according to CNBC. The national gas average is at $3.99, according to AAA. Both numbers are still climbing.

Bloomberg reported on March 30 that there has never been a more lucrative time to own an oil tanker. The Baltic Exchange TD3C benchmark hit $423,736 per day on March 3, according to LSEG data. The VLCC Kalamos set an all-time fixture record at $770,000 per day loading at Yanbu for India, according to Veson Nautical. Frontline, Nordic American Tankers, and DHT Holdings have each gained more than 59% year to date, according to market data. Frontline locked in 7 VLCCs on one-year time charters at $76,900 per day each.

The jet fuel supply chain is collapsing alongside crude. Windward and Vortexa data confirmed that the number of LR1 and LR2 tankers carrying jet fuel dropped from 78 on March 20 to just 22 by March 28. That is a 72% collapse in 8 days. Europe is most exposed. Kuwait, the world’s second-largest jet fuel exporter, shipped 61% of its exports from refineries that were struck on March 19, according to Windward. France, the UK, the Netherlands, and Belgium are the top destinations. Euronews reported on March 30 that airlines are cutting flights and raising fares. Air France-KLM announced long-haul fare increases of approximately 50 euros per round trip. SAS confirmed cancellation of hundreds of flights.

📊 By The Numbers

→ ~27.5 Million Bpd: Combined Volume At Risk Across Three Chokepoints (Windward March 30)

→ 90-95%: Hormuz Transit Decline Since February 28 (Kpler, CBS News)

→ ~2,000: Vessels Stranded Near Hormuz (IMO)

→ 20,000: Seafarers Stuck On Stranded Vessels (IMO)

→ 40%: Russia Oil Export Capacity Halted (~2 Million Bpd) (Reuters Via NBC News)

→ 5: Ukrainian Drone Strikes On Ust-Luga In 7 Days (Bloomberg, gCaptain)

→ 350,000 Bpd: KINEF Refinery Output Halted After Drone Strike (Ukrainska Pravda)

→ 4.6 Million Bpd: Saudi Yanbu Loading Rate, 3x 2025 Average (Vortexa)

→ 70-75%: Yanbu Exports Exposed To Houthi Interference Via Bab Al-Mandab (Horn Review)

→ 78 To 22: Jet Fuel Tankers (LR1/LR2) Collapsed 72% In 8 Days (Windward/Vortexa)

→ $423,736/Day: Record VLCC Rate On TD3C, March 3 (LSEG)

→ $770,000/Day: All-Time VLCC Fixture Record, Kalamos At Yanbu (Veson Nautical)

→ $112-$115: Brent Crude Per Barrel, March 30 (CNBC, TECHi)

→ $3.99: US National Gas Average, March 30 (AAA)

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

The Russian-flagged tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, owned by sanctioned state company Sovcomflot, departed Russia’s Primorsk port on March 8 carrying approximately 730,000 barrels of crude oil, according to Bloomberg and CiberCuba. A Russian Steregushchiy-class frigate, the RFN Soobrazitelny, escorted the tanker through the English Channel, according to the Maritime Executive. The British Royal Navy dispatched HMS Mersey and a Wildcat helicopter for 48 hours of monitoring, according to the Maritime Executive. Multiple US Navy and Coast Guard assets tracked the tanker across the Atlantic but did not interfere, according to SOUTHCOM Commander Gen. Francis Donovan’s Senate testimony on March 20. On March 29, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One: “If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with that, whether it’s Russia or not,” according to the Washington Post and NPR. On March 30, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed: “This issue was indeed raised in advance during contacts with our American counterparts,” according to the Moscow Times. The tanker arrived in Cuban territorial waters on March 30, according to Russia’s Transport Ministry, Bloomberg, and CiberCuba.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

📊 Get The Deep Water Report

→ Global Tanker Market Outlook Q2 2026

📋 Competency-Based Maritime Training

→ SwiftAction

📌 Gosships Data Card

→ March 8: Anatoly Kolodkin Departs Primorsk With ~730,000 Barrels Of Russian Crude (Bloomberg, CiberCuba)

→ March 19: Russian Frigate RFN Soobrazitelny Escorts Tanker Through English Channel. Royal Navy Dispatches HMS Mersey (Maritime Executive)

→ March 20: SOUTHCOM Commander Gen. Donovan Confirms US Is Tracking The Tanker (Senate Testimony)

→ March 24: Tanker’s AIS Destination Changed From “Atlantis” To “Atlantic For Order” (Maritime Executive, UPI)

→ March 27: Tanker Skips Cuba, Appears At Venezuela’s Puerto Cabello (UPI)

→ March 29: AIS Destination Changes To “Matanzas, Cuba, Arriving March 31” (MarineTraffic)

→ March 29: Trump Says “I Have No Problem” With Russian Oil Going To Cuba (Washington Post, NPR)

→ March 30: Kremlin Confirms “This Issue Was Raised In Advance” With Washington (Moscow Times)

→ March 30: Russia’s Transport Ministry Confirms Anatoly Kolodkin Arrives In Cuban Waters (Bloomberg, CiberCuba)

🛢️ The Story

The Anatoly Kolodkin (IMO 9610808, 118,316 DWT) is owned by Sovcomflot, Russia’s state shipping company, which has been under US, EU, and UK sanctions since 2022, according to the Maritime Executive. The vessel loaded approximately 730,000 barrels, roughly 100,000 metric tons, of crude oil at Russia’s Primorsk port on March 8, according to Bloomberg and CiberCuba.

The tanker’s journey across the Atlantic was shadowed at every stage. The Russian navy dispatched a Steregushchiy-class frigate, the RFN Soobrazitelny, to escort the tanker through the English Channel, according to the Maritime Executive. The British Royal Navy sent Portsmouth-based HMS Mersey and a Wildcat helicopter for 48 hours of surveillance on March 19, according to the Maritime Executive. The Russian frigate turned back after clearing the Channel.

The vessel’s AIS destination was changed multiple times during the crossing, according to UPI and the Maritime Executive. It was initially set to “Atlantis,” then “USA,” then “Atlantic for order,” and on March 29 to “Matanzas, Cuba, arriving March 31.” On March 27, the tanker appeared at Venezuela’s Puerto Cabello anchorage before resuming course for Cuba, according to UPI. A second tanker, the Hong Kong-flagged Sea Horse, carrying approximately 200,000 barrels of Russian-origin diesel, also arrived near Venezuela on March 25 but had not yet discharged cargo as of March 28, according to the Washington Post and LSEG data.

The US military tracked the Anatoly Kolodkin throughout. SOUTHCOM Commander Gen. Francis Donovan confirmed tracking during Senate testimony on March 20, calling it a “replenishment ship” that would have “no significant impact” on Cuba’s shortages, according to Senate testimony reported by gCaptain. US Navy destroyer USS Nitze was positioned near the Bahamas. USCG cutters Tahoma and Richard Etheridge patrolled near Florida and Cuba, according to the Maritime Executive.

On March 29, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One: “If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with that, whether it’s Russia or not,” according to the Washington Post, NPR, and CNN. He added: “I’d prefer letting it in, whether it’s Russia or anybody else, because the people need heat and cooling.” He said of Cuba: “Cuba’s finished, they have a bad regime, they have very bad and corrupt leadership, and whether or not they get a boat of oil it’s not going to matter,” according to the Washington Post. On Putin: “It doesn’t help him. He loses one boatload of oil, that’s all it is.”

Trump’s statement appears to conflict with Treasury OFAC General License 134A, issued March 20, which explicitly barred Cuba from receiving Russian oil, according to CBS News.

On March 30, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the arrival and said: “We are pleased that this shipment of petroleum products has already arrived on the island.” He added: “This issue was indeed raised in advance during contacts with our American counterparts,” according to the Moscow Times. Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev characterized it as “humanitarian support.”

Cuba has not received an oil tanker since January 9, 2026, according to President Diaz-Canel. The island has suffered three nationwide blackouts in March alone, according to NPR. Eight of Cuba’s 16 thermoelectric plants are offline. Rolling power outages last up to 20 hours daily, according to Al Jazeera and IEEE Spectrum.

The 730,000 barrels will provide roughly one week to one month of relief depending on how it is processed, according to estimates from Bloomberg, Kpler, and SOUTHCOM.

Jorge Pinon of the University of Texas Energy Institute estimated that processing time is 15 to 20 days to refine plus 5 to 10 days to deliver, producing approximately 250,000 barrels of diesel, enough for roughly 12.5 days of Cuba’s demand, according to Bloomberg. SOUTHCOM estimated the cargo would last at most two weeks. Kpler calculated roughly one month’s supply of crude.

Geopolitical analyst Basil Germond of Lancaster University told the BBC: “This seems to confirm that this vessel acts as a tripwire signal: interfering with it would escalate from sanctions enforcement to direct confrontation with a Russian asset.” Alex Gray, former NSC chief of staff, told France 24: “At the cost of one oil tanker, they can try and create a disproportionate impact on our focus and resources.”

What this means for sanctions enforcement credibility, for the shadow fleet operators who calculate whether the West is serious about interdiction, and for the broader question of whether Russia can ship oil anywhere it wants while the US fights Iran over Hormuz, is below.

📊 By The Numbers

→ 730,000 Barrels: Crude Oil Loaded On Anatoly Kolodkin (Bloomberg, CiberCuba)

→ 100,000 Metric Tons: Cargo Weight (Russia Transport Ministry, Bloomberg)

→ IMO 9610808: Anatoly Kolodkin Vessel Identifier (Maritime Executive)

→ 118,316 DWT: Vessel Deadweight Tonnage (Maritime Executive)

→ 200,000 Barrels: Approximate Cargo On Second Tanker Sea Horse (Washington Post)

→ 3: Nationwide Blackouts In Cuba In March 2026 (NPR, Al Jazeera)

→ 20 Hours/Day: Rolling Power Outages In Cuba (Al Jazeera)

→ 8 of 16: Cuban Thermoelectric Plants Offline (IEEE Spectrum)

→ January 9: Last Time Cuba Received An Oil Tanker Before Kolodkin (President Diaz-Canel)

→ 12.5 Days: Estimated Diesel Supply From 730,000 Barrels Once Refined (Bloomberg, Univ. of Texas)

→ 544: Vessels Sanctioned By The UK (Washington Times)

→ ~600: Vessels Blacklisted By The EU (Euromaidan Press)

🔍 Why It Matters

The Kolodkin is not about 730,000 barrels. It is about what happens when a

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

Trump posted on Truth Social on March 30 that without a deal, the United States will conclude its “lovely stay” in Iran by “blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!),” according to CNBC. Kharg Island handles approximately 90% of Iran’s crude exports with capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day, according to CNN. The deadline is April 6, 2026, at 8:00 PM Eastern Time, according to CBS News. Seven days separate the global oil market from the most consequential energy infrastructure strike since the Gulf War.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

  ---

📊 Get The Deep Water Report

→ Global Tanker Market Outlook Q2 2026

📋 Competency-Based Maritime Training

→ SwiftAction

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→ March 23: Trump Issues 48-Hour Ultimatum To Iran To Reopen Hormuz (CBS News)

→ March 24: Trump Extends Deadline By 5 Days (CBS News)

→ March 26: Trump Extends Deadline By 10 More Days To April 6 At 8 PM ET (CBS News, Truth Social)

→ March 27: Rubio Tells G7 War Will Continue “2-4 More Weeks” (Axios, 3 Sources)

→ March 30: Trump Threatens To “Obliterate” Kharg Island, Oil Wells, Power Plants (CNBC, Truth Social)

→ March 30: Rubio Tells Al Jazeera Hormuz Will Reopen “One Way Or Another” (Al Jazeera)

→ April 6: Deadline Expires, 8:00 PM Eastern Time

🛢️ The Story

On March 30, President Trump posted on Truth Social the most explicit threat to destroy a nation’s oil infrastructure in modern history. “If for any reason a deal is not shortly reached,” Trump wrote, “we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!),” according to CNBC.

In a separate interview with the Financial Times on the same day, Trump said: “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” according to CNBC.

Kharg Island is not just any target. It handles approximately 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, with a capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day, according to CNN. It is the single most important oil export facility in the Middle East. A strike on Kharg Island would remove Iran’s primary source of revenue in the middle of a war that has already closed the Strait of Hormuz for 30 days.

The deadline has been extended three times. Trump first issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on March 23, according to CBS News. He extended it by 5 days on March 24. He extended it again by 10 more days on March 26, pushing the deadline to April 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM Eastern Time, according to CBS News.

Trump wrote on Truth Social when announcing the extension: “As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time,” according to CBS News. He added: “They asked for seven, and I said, ‘I’m going to give you 10,’ because they gave me ships,” referring to oil tankers Iran had permitted through Hormuz.

On the same day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Al Jazeera: “The Strait of Hormuz will be open when this operation is over, one way or another,” according to Al Jazeera. Rubio told G7 foreign ministers in France on March 27 that he expected the war to continue for “2-4 more weeks,” according to Axios, citing three sources familiar with the conversations. He told reporters: “We are on or ahead of schedule in that operation, and expect to conclude it in a matter of weeks, not months,” according to RFE/RL.

Iran has rejected the American proposal. Iran’s FM spokesperson Esmail Baghaei called the US 15-point plan “largely excessive, unrealistic, and unreasonable demands,” according to CNN. Iran’s five conditions for peace include “recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz,” according to the Tasnim News Agency. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf accused the US of “secretly planning a ground invasion” while negotiating, according to Euronews.

Pakistan is mediating. A four-nation foreign ministers meeting convened in Islamabad on March 29, with Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt attending, according to Euronews. Pakistan FM Ishaq Dar confirmed on March 30: “Both Iran and the US have expressed their confidence in Pakistan to facilitate their talks,” according to Al Jazeera. Trump said on March 30 that he was “pretty sure” a deal would be reached, according to Al Jazeera.

If Kharg Island is struck, total global oil production losses could reach 16 million barrels per day, according to JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy. Goldman Sachs head of Oil Research Daan Struyven projects Brent at $115 per barrel in April, with an adverse scenario peak of $140 and a severely adverse peak of $160, according to Goldman Sachs research. Three deadline extensions have trained the market to expect a fourth. But every extension has come with an escalation in language. The first was a warning. The second was a threat. The third named the target.

The USS Gerald R. Ford, which had been the primary carrier for operations against Iran, suffered a laundry-room fire on March 12 that lasted over 30 hours and treated more than 200 personnel for smoke inhalation, according to Army Recognition and The Hill. The carrier withdrew to Souda Bay, Crete for repairs. The USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) is preparing to deploy as replacement. The amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA-7) arrived in the Middle East on March 28 carrying 3,500 Marines and sailors, according to Army Recognition. An additional 2,200 Marines and 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne are deploying to the region.

Insurance rates have become a secondary blockade. CBS News reported that war risk premiums now range from 3.5% to 10% of hull value per transit. For a typical VLCC valued at $250 million, that translates to approximately $8.75 million per transit at the lower end. according to CBS News. Before the war, premiums were 0.125% to 0.25% of hull value. All 12 members of the International Group of P&I Clubs issued 72-hour cancellation notices effective March 5, voiding war risk extensions across approximately 1,000 vessels with combined hull value exceeding $25 billion, according to Lloyd’s List.

The IMO Extraordinary Council Session convened March 18 to 19 with 120 member states participating, according to the IMO. Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez declared readiness to negotiate a humanitarian corridor for the 2,000 stranded vessels and 20,000 seafarers.

What a Kharg Island strike would mean for VLCC rates, for the 2,000 vessels stranded near Hormuz, for the 20,000 seafarers stuck on those vessels, and for the gas price that is already at $3.99, is below.

📊 By The Numbers

→ 90%: Share Of Iran’s Crude Exports That Flow Through Kharg Island (CNN)

→ ~7 Million Bpd: Kharg Island’s Export Capacity (CNN)

→ 16 Million Bpd: JPMorgan Projected Production Losses If Kharg Is Hit (JPMorgan, Natasha Kaneva)

→ $140/$160: Goldman Sachs Adverse/Severely Adverse Brent Peak (Goldman Sachs, Daan Struyven)

→ 2,000: Vessels Stranded Near Hormuz (IMO)

→ 20,000: Seafarers Stuck On Stranded Vessels (IMO)

→ 3.5%-10%: War Risk Insurance Premium Per Transit, Up From 0.125% Pre-War (CBS News)

→ 3: Deadline Extensions Since March 23

→ 7 Days: Time Remaining Until April 6 Deadline

🔍 Why It Matters

The pattern matters more than the words. Three extensions. Each one paired

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*52 Slots Left)

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on March 25 that China is a “friendly nation” with safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters, Bloomberg, and Al Jazeera. Two days later, on March 27, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps turned back two of China’s biggest container ships at the entrance to the Strait, according to Newsweek, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and MarineTraffic vessel tracking data. The CSCL Indian Ocean and the CSCL Arctic Ocean, both owned by China’s state-run COSCO Shipping, made U-turns near Larak Island at 3:20 AM and 3:50 AM UTC after being denied passage, according to MarineTraffic. The IRGC then declared the Strait of Hormuz “closed” and said any movement through it “will be met with a harsh response,” according to Newsweek and CBS News. Iran’s foreign ministry says friendly nations can pass with coordination. Iran’s military says nobody passes. It is unclear whether COSCO completed the coordination process Iran’s foreign ministry required before the ships attempted transit. Two branches of the same government gave two different signals on the same waterway within 48 hours. Gas in America went from $2.98 to $3.98 in 30 days.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

📊 Get The Deep Water Report

→ Global Tanker Market Outlook Q2 2026

📋 Competency-Based Maritime Training

→ SwiftAction

📌 Gosships Data Card

→ March 25: Iran FM Araghchi Announces China Is A “Friendly Nation” With Safe Passage Through Hormuz (Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera)

→ March 27: IRGC Turns Back Two COSCO Ships At Larak Island, 3:20 AM And 3:50 AM UTC (MarineTraffic, Newsweek, FDD)

→ COSCO Ships: CSCL Indian Ocean And CSCL Arctic Ocean, Both Hong Kong-Flagged, Chinese-Owned And Crewed (MarineTraffic, The National)

→ Third Ship Turned Back: Marshall Islands-Flagged Lotus Rising (FDD)

→ IRGC Statement: “The Strait Of Hormuz Is Closed. Any Movement Will Be Met With A Harsh Response.” (Newsweek, CBS News)

→ IRGC Reason: “Following The False Statements Of The Corrupt US President Claiming The Strait Is Open” (CBS News, The Week)

🛢️ The Story

On March 25, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian state television that Tehran had permitted passage through the Strait of Hormuz for “friendly nations including China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan,” according to Reuters, Bloomberg, and Al Jazeera. The Consulate General of Iran in Mumbai posted the statement on social media. It was the clearest signal since the war began on February 28 that the Strait might partially reopen.

On March 25, COSCO Shipping, China’s largest shipping company and the world’s fourth-largest container carrier by capacity, issued a customer advisory confirming it had resumed accepting bookings for cargo shipments to Gulf destinations including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman, according to The National and Newsweek. It was the first major ocean carrier to resume bookings since the war began.

On March 27, two COSCO mega container ships attempted to exit the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The CSCL Indian Ocean and the CSCL Arctic Ocean, both ultra-large container vessels operating on COSCO’s MEX service within the Ocean Alliance network, approached the waters between Larak and Qeshm islands, where Iran has been running an unofficial transit corridor, according to MarineTraffic, Newsweek, and the Maritime Executive. Both ships had changed their AIS displays to broadcast “Chinese Owner & Crew,” according to the Maritime Executive and Newsweek.

Both ships made abrupt U-turns. The CSCL Indian Ocean reversed course at approximately 3:20 AM UTC. The CSCL Arctic Ocean followed at 3:50 AM UTC, according to MarineTraffic tracking data confirmed by Newsweek, The National, and Kpler. The ships had been stuck in the Persian Gulf since the start of the war, according to Newsweek and The Week.

A third ship, the Marshall Islands-flagged Lotus Rising, was also turned back, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Hours later, the IRGC issued a statement on its Sepah News website, in an apparent reference to the COSCO vessels: “This morning, following the false statements of the corrupt US president claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is open, three container ships of different nationalities moved toward the designated corridor for authorized vessel traffic, but were turned back after warnings from the IRGC Navy,” according to Newsweek, CBS News, and The Week.

The IRGC then went further: “The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The movement of any vessel ‘to and from’ ports of origin belonging to allies and supporters of the Zionist-American enemies, to any destination and through any corridor, is prohibited,” according to Newsweek, CBS News, and Manila Times.

The timing matters. Trump had said on Thursday, March 26, during a Cabinet meeting, that Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers through Hormuz as a “present” to show it was serious about negotiations, according to CNBC and CBS News. The IRGC explicitly cited Trump’s claim as the reason for blocking the ships. Iran’s military turned back its own ally’s ships to publicly contradict the American president.

This creates an extraordinary situation. Iran’s foreign ministry, through FM Araghchi, announced on March 25 that Chinese ships have safe passage with coordination. Iran’s military, through the IRGC, turned back Chinese ships on March 27 and declared the Strait closed. It remains unclear whether COSCO completed the coordination process that Iran’s foreign ministry required as a condition of transit. Araghchi’s announcement specified that passage was available “in coordination with the competent Iranian authorities.” If COSCO attempted to transit without completing that process, the IRGC may have been enforcing the conditions rather than contradicting the foreign ministry. But the IRGC’s own statement did not cite a lack of coordination. It cited Trump’s claim that the Strait was open. The effect is the same: two branches of the same government issued signals that produced opposite outcomes within 48 hours.

COSCO has at least six crude oil tankers stuck in the Gulf in addition to the two container ships that were turned back, according to Bloomberg. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is down 95% from pre-war levels in the period from March 1 to March 26, according to Kpler. Since March 1, 24 commercial vessels including 11 tankers have been attacked or reported incidents in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman, according to the UKMTO.

Only 26 ships have been approved by Iran to transit the Strait using a pre-approved IRGC route around Larak Island, according to Lloyd’s List. At least two of those vessels paid approximately $2 million in Chinese yuan to use the corridor, according to Lloyd’s List analysts. Iran’s parliament is actively drafting legislation to formalize permanent toll collection.

The FDD’s Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow, offered one explanation: “Whilst Iran probably does not seek to alienate China, which has been sympathetic to its plight in the war with America and Israel, access through the Strait of Hormuz may be affected by a range of considerations. This incident could reflect a lower-level or more localized shakedown of the vessels in question.”

What this means for every shipping company that believed Iran’s safe passage guarantee, for Sinokor’s 130 to 150 VLCCs that may have been counting on Korean non-hostile access, and for the fundamental question of who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz is below.

📊 By The Numbers

What Iran’s Foreign Ministry Said (March 25):

→ “We Permitted Passage Through The Strait Of Hormuz For Friendly Nations Including China, Russia, India, Iraq, And Pakistan” (Iran FM Araghchi Via Reuters, Bloomberg)

→ Passage Available “In Coordination With The Competent Iranian Authorities” (Iran UN Mission Via Reuters)

→ COSCO Resumed Bookings To Gulf Destinations March 25 (The National, Newsweek)

What Iran’s Military Did (March 27):

→ IRGC Turned Back CSCL Indian Ocean At 3:20 AM UTC (MarineTraffic, Newsweek)

→ IRGC Turned Back CSCL Arctic Ocean At 3:50 AM UTC (MarineTraffic, Newsweek, Kpler)

→ Third Ship Lotus Rising Also Turned Back (FDD)

→ IRGC: “The Strait Of Hormuz Is Closed. Any Movement Will Be Met With A Harsh Response.” (Newsweek, CBS News)

→ IRGC Reason: “Following The False Statements Of The Corrupt US President” (CBS News, The Week)

Additional Verified Data:

→ Hormuz Traffic Down 95% From Pre-War Levels, March 1-26 (Kpler)

→ 24 Commercial Vessels Attacked Since March 1, Including 11 Tankers (UKMTO)

→ 26 Ships Approved Via IRGC Corridor Since March 15 (Lloyd’s List)

→ At Least Two Vessels Paid ~$2 Million In Yuan To Transit (Lloyd’s List)

→ COSCO Has 6+ Crude Oil Tankers Also Stuck In The Gulf (Bloomberg)

→ Brent Crude: $111/Barrel On March 27 After COSCO Incident (Trading Economics)

Related Coverage

Sinokor Cornered the VLCC Market. Now They Just Bought Their First Three Suezmaxes. Brokers Expect an Avalanche. (March 2026)

Sinokor Is Charging $20 Per Barrel to Ship Oil. Last Year It Was $2.50. They Control 40% of Available Tankers. Nobody Can Do Anything About It. (March 2026)

What this means for every shipping company that believed Iran’s safe passage guarantee, for Sinokor’s 130 to 150 VLCCs that may have been counting on Korean non-hostile access, and for the fundamental question of who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz is below.

Read more

🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*53 Slots Left)

MSC, the world’s largest container shipping company, invested $3.3 billion in South Korea’s Sinokor Maritime. The 50% stake was confirmed by regulatory filings on March 19, according to Bloomberg and Splash247. Sinokor used the money to buy 60+ tankers, building a fleet of 130 to 150 VLCCs that controls up to 37% of the short-term charter market, according to iMarine, Bloomberg, and Fearnleys. One week later, on March 26, Iran’s ambassador to South Korea announced that Tehran considers South Korea “a non-hostile country” and that Korean vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz with prior coordination, according to the Korea Times and Korea Herald. The ambassador added that Iran “appreciates that South Korea did not join the US proposal,” referring to Trump’s call for a military coalition, according to the Korea Herald. The country that controls the largest supertanker fleet in the world may have just been given access to the most valuable shipping route on earth while most Western-linked competitors are locked out. Gas in America went from $2.98 to $3.96 in 23 days.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

📊 Get The Deep Water Report

→ Global Tanker Market Outlook Q2 2026

📋 Competency-Based Maritime Training

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📌 Gosships Data Card

→ MSC Acquired 50% Stake In Sinokor, Confirmed By Regulatory Filings March 19 (Bloomberg, Splash247)

→ Sinokor Spent Approximately $3.3 Billion On 60+ Tankers (Veson Nautical, Forbes)

→ Sinokor Controls 130 To 150 VLCCs, Up To 17% Of The Global Fleet, Up To 37% Of The Short-Term Charter Market (iMarine, Bloomberg, Fearnleys)

→ South Korea Did Not Join Trump’s Military Coalition At Hormuz, Said It Would “Consider The Proposal” (Al Jazeera, The Diplomat, March 16)

→ Iran’s Ambassador: “South Korea Is A Non-Hostile Country” (Korea Times, Korea Herald, March 26)

→ Iran’s Ambassador: Tehran “Appreciates That South Korea Did Not Join The US Proposal” (Korea Herald, March 26)

🛢️ The Story

Three events happened in the span of ten days. Each one is verified. Together, they tell a story no one else is connecting.

On March 14, Trump posted on Truth Social calling on South Korea, Japan, China, France, and the United Kingdom to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz to help American forces reopen the passage, according to Al Jazeera. “Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area,” he wrote, according to Al Jazeera.

On March 16, Germany, Japan, France, the UK, Australia, and China all explicitly refused, according to Al Jazeera and The Diplomat. South Korea did not refuse. Seoul said it would “consider the proposal and hold consultations,” according to Al Jazeera, The Diplomat, and multiple sources. South Korea was the only country among those Trump named that did not reject the request outright.

On March 19, regulatory filings from Greek and Cypriot competition commissions confirmed that Gianluigi Aponte, founder of MSC and the world’s richest shipowner, is acquiring a 50% stake in South Korea’s Sinokor Maritime, according to Bloomberg, Splash247, and TradeWinds. The filing formalized the funding behind what shipbrokers are calling the most aggressive fleet acquisition in tanker history. Sinokor spent approximately $3.3 billion purchasing 60+ tankers, according to Veson Nautical and Forbes. The company now controls 130 to 150 VLCCs through ownership and time charter, according to iMarine and Bloomberg. That represents up to 17% of the total global VLCC fleet of approximately 880 vessels, according to iMarine. Norwegian shipbroker Fearnleys estimated that Sinokor’s market share in the short-term VLCC charter market could reach as high as 37% by February 2026, according to iMarine. In January 2026 alone, Sinokor purchased 35 of 45 VLCCs sold globally, according to Veson Nautical. BRS stated: “There has never before been a single VLCC operator with such a dominant market share.”

On March 26, Iran’s Ambassador to South Korea, Saeed Koozechi, held a press conference at the Iranian Embassy in Seoul. He announced that Iran considers South Korea “a non-hostile country,” according to the Korea Times and Korea Herald. He added that Tehran “appreciates that South Korea did not join the US proposal,” in an apparent reference to Trump’s call for a military coalition at Hormuz, according to the Korea Herald. The ambassador said Korean vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz with prior coordination with Tehran, according to the Korea Herald and UPI.

“There is no problem with safety, but any vessel must coordinate with the Iranian government in advance. Passage is only possible through prior agreement,” Koozechi said, according to the Korea Times.

The diplomatic cause and effect is explicit. Iran’s ambassador did not just label Korea non-hostile. He explained why. He said Tehran appreciates that South Korea did not join the US proposal. South Korea’s decision to say “we’ll consider it” instead of refusing was enough. Every other country Trump named said no. Korea was the only one that left the door open. Ten days later, Iran opened the Strait for Korean ships.

Twenty-six South Korean vessels are currently stranded at the Strait of Hormuz, with 179 Korean crew members unable to leave the area, according to the Korea Herald. Iran has asked Seoul to provide a list of the stranded vessels and their details through diplomatic channels, according to the Korea Herald. “Iran is acting in good faith and is willing to allow South Korean ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but the process will depend on receiving the relevant information and the vessels list,” Koozechi said, according to the Korea Herald.

There is a condition. The ambassador drew a clear distinction regarding vessels tied to U.S. economic interests. “We have stated that we will not permit passage through the strait for any targets related to the United States or Israel,” Koozechi told Korean radio, according to the Korea Herald. “Companies currently doing business with US firms are subject to sanctions during wartime,” he added, according to the Korea Herald.

MSC is Swiss-Italian, not American. But MSC operates globally, including in the United States. Sinokor has Korean beneficial ownership but is now 50% owned by a European conglomerate. The question is whether Sinokor, now half-owned by MSC, qualifies under Iran’s definition of “non-hostile.” The ambassador’s condition was clear: no links to U.S. companies. MSC is not American. But the compliance line is razor thin.

South Korea gets approximately 70% of its oil from the Middle East, according to The Diplomat. The country has been telling its citizens to take shorter showers and charge their phones during the day to conserve energy, according to Reuters and CNBC. South Korea’s Prime Minister warned the government must prepare for “worst-case scenarios,” according to Bloomberg.

Sinokor is a South Korean company. It controls 130 to 150 VLCCs. Iran just told South Korea its ships can transit Hormuz. If Sinokor’s VLCCs qualify as Korean vessels unlinked to U.S. interests, the company that dominates the short-term VLCC charter market may have access to the Strait of Hormuz while virtually every Western-linked competitor is locked out. VLCC rates from the Gulf to Asia hit $423,736 per day on March 3, according to CNBC. One Yanbu-to-India fixture reportedly hit $770,000 per day on March 6, according to Veson Nautical.

MSC’s Aponte invested $3.3 billion in a South Korean shipping company. South Korea didn’t join Trump’s coalition. Iran opened the Strait for Korean ships. What this means for every VLCC fixture through Hormuz, whether Sinokor qualifies under Iran’s conditions, and why the compliance line between South Korean and Western-linked tonnage may determine who controls the most valuable shipping route on earth is below.

📊 By The Numbers

The Timeline:

→ March 14: Trump Posts On Truth Social Calling On South Korea, Japan, China, France, UK To Send Warships To Hormuz (Al Jazeera)

→ March 16: Germany, Japan, France, UK, Australia, China All Explicitly Refuse. South Korea Says It Will “Consider The Proposal And Hold Consultations.” Only Country Not To Refuse. (Al Jazeera, The Diplomat)

→ March 19: Greek And Cypriot Filings Confirm MSC Acquiring 50% Of Sinokor. $3.3 Billion Fleet Investment Formalized. (Bloomberg, Splash247, TradeWinds)

→ March 23: Trump Pauses Strikes On Iranian Energy Infrastructure For Five Days, Citing “Productive” Talks. Oil Drops 11%. (CNBC, NBC News)

→ March 25: Iran Tells The UN And IMO That “Non-Hostile Vessels” May Transit Hormuz With Coordination. (Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera)

→ March 26: Iran’s Ambassador To Seoul Says “South Korea Is A Non-Hostile Country.” Tehran “Appreciates That South Korea Did Not Join The US Proposal.” Korean Ships May Transit With Prior Agreement. (Korea Times, Korea Herald, UPI)

Additional Verified Data:

→ Sinokor Controls 130 To 150 VLCCs Through Ownership And Time Charter (iMarine, Bloomberg)

→ Up To 17% Of The Total Global VLCC Fleet Of ~880 Vessels (iMarine)

→ Up To 37% Of The Short-Term VLCC Charter Market (Fearnleys Via iMarine)

→ Sinokor Purchased 35 Of 45 VLCCs Sold Globally In January 2026 (Veson Nautical)

→ BRS: “There Has Never Before Been A Single VLCC Operator With Such A Dominant Market Share” (BRS)

→ 26 South Korean Ships Stranded At Hormuz, 179 Crew Members (Korea Herald)

→ South Korea Gets ~70% Of Its Oil From The Middle East (The Diplomat)

→ VLCC Rate Record: $423,736/Day On March 3 (CNBC)

→ Single Fixture: $770,000/Day On March 6, Yanbu-India (Veson Nautical)

→ Iran’s Condition: Ships Linked To U.S. Or Israel Will Not Be Permitted (Korea Herald)

Related Coverage

Sinokor Cornered the VLCC Market. Now They Just Bought Their First Three Suezmaxes. Brokers Expect an Avalanche.

(March 2026)

Sinokor Is Charging $20 Per Barrel to Ship Oil. Last Year It Was $2.50. They Control 40% of Available Tankers. Nobody Can Do Anything About It.

(March 2026)

MSC invested $3.3 billion in Sinokor. South Korea didn’t join Trump’s coalition. Iran opened the Strait for Korean ships. Sinokor controls 130 to 150 of the world's supertankers. Whether Sinokor qualifies under Iran’s definition of “non-hostile,” what this means for every VLCC fixture through Hormuz, and why the compliance line between South Korean and Western-linked tonnage may determine who controls the most valuable shipping route on earth is below.

🔍 Why It Matters

For VLCC brokers, this is the most significant competitive development in the tanker market since the Hormuz closure. If Sinokor’s VLCCs can transit

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🏅 Founding Black Gold Membership (*53 Slots Left)

Asia is running out of fuel. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency on March 25 with 45 days of supply remaining, the first country to do so since the war began, according to Bloomberg and Philstar. South Korea told its citizens to take shorter showers, charge their phones during the day, and vacuum on weekends, according to Reuters and CNBC. Japan is launching its biggest emergency oil reserve release in history, according to CNN. Sri Lanka declared every Wednesday a public holiday to save fuel, according to Reuters. A Russian oil tanker carrying 750,000 barrels just arrived in Manila Bay. It was the first Russian oil delivery to the Philippines in five years. Gas in America went from $2.98 to $3.96 in 23 days.

📋 In this issue:

• 🛢️ The Story

• 📊 By The Numbers

• 🔍 Why It Matters

• 👀 What to Watch

• 🚨 Gosships Signal

📊 Get The Global Tanker Market Outlook

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📋 Competency-Based Maritime Training

→ SwiftAction

📌 Gosships Data Card

→ Philippines: National Energy Emergency Declared, 45 Days Of Fuel Remaining (Bloomberg, Philstar, March 25)

→ South Korea: Citizens Told To Take Shorter Showers, Charge Phones During Day, Vacuum On Weekends (Reuters, CNBC, March 25)

→ Japan: Launching Biggest Emergency Oil Reserve Release In History, $5 Billion In Subsidies (CNN, Reuters, March 25)

→ Sri Lanka: Declared Every Wednesday A Public Holiday To Save Fuel (Reuters, March 25)

→ Pakistan: Schools Closed For Two Weeks, Office Workers Working From Home (Reuters, March 25)

→ China: Restricted Overseas Shipments Of Fuel To Protect Domestic Supply (CNN, March 25)

🛢️ The Story

The Philippines became the first country to declare a national energy emergency as a direct result of the Iran war. On March 25, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed Executive Order 110, citing “an imminent danger of a critically low energy supply,” according to Bloomberg and Philstar. In an interview with Bloomberg at the presidential palace, Marcos said the country has approximately 45 days of fuel remaining.

Virtually all of the Philippines’ oil and gas comes from the Middle East and is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Moscow Times. The country has one operating crude oil refinery, owned by Petron in Bataan, according to The National. Marcos said grounding planes is “a distinct possibility,” according to Bloomberg.

On March 24, the Sierra Leone-flagged tanker Sara Sky arrived at the Limay anchorage in Manila Bay carrying approximately 100,000 tonnes, or roughly 750,000 barrels, of ESPO Blend crude from Russia’s Kozmino port, according to Reuters, MarineTraffic, LSEG, Kpler, and OilX via Philstar. It was the first Russian oil delivery to the Philippines in five years.

The delivery was made possible by the U.S. Treasury’s temporary authorization issued on March 12, allowing countries to purchase Russian oil loaded between March 12 and April 11, according to the Moscow Times. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro told local media: “We regard all nations as our friends, and as much as possible we strive to avoid misunderstandings with other countries. At present, we are in need of oil,” according to BusinessMirror.

Budget carrier Cebu Pacific announced it is suspending international routes and cutting frequencies across its network, citing fuel prices that “have more than doubled compared with 2025 averages,” according to Philstar and AeroTime. Routes from Davao, Iloilo, Clark, and Manila to destinations across Asia and Australia are being suspended or reduced from April through October, according to Philstar.

The Philippines is not alone. CNN reported on March 25 that Asia is embracing “energy austerity” as the war enters its fourth week. The Middle East accounts for approximately 60% of Asia’s oil supply, according to CNN. Asia buys more than 80% of the crude that transits the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.

South Korea launched a public campaign on March 25 asking citizens to cut shower time, charge phones during the day, and run vacuums on weekends, according to Reuters. The government imposed a five-day license plate rotation system to restrict public-sector vehicle traffic, according to CNBC. South Korea’s Prime Minister Kim Min-seok warned that the government must prepare for “worst-case scenarios” as the conflict shows signs of persisting, according to Bloomberg. South Korea is also considering limiting exports of naphtha, a petroleum byproduct used in plastics manufacturing, according to CNN.

Japan announced its biggest emergency oil reserve release in history, according to CNN. The Japanese government plans to tap 800 billion yen, approximately $5 billion, in reserve funds to subsidize gasoline prices at approximately 170 yen per litre, according to Reuters. Japan told citizens there was no need to hoard toilet paper amid growing panic over potential shortages, according to CNN.

Pakistan closed schools for two weeks and said office workers would work more from home, according to Reuters. Sri Lanka declared every Wednesday a public holiday to make fuel supplies last longer, according to Reuters. Thailand ordered government workers to suspend overseas trips, set air conditioning above 25 degrees Celsius, avoid suits and ties, use stairs instead of elevators, and work from home, according to Reuters. Singapore urged people and businesses to switch to energy-efficient appliances, use electric vehicles, and raise air conditioning temperatures, according to Reuters. New Zealand announced temporary financial support of NZ$50 per week for low-income families starting in April, according to Reuters.

China restricted overseas shipments of fuel and other materials to protect domestic supply, according to CNN.

Airlines across the region are cutting flights. Vietnam, the Philippines, Australia, and Pacific island nations have all suspended or reduced service, according to CNN. The threat of running out has raised concerns about how shortages could cascade through Asia’s manufacturing industry and make goods like electronics, cars, and textiles more scarce, according to CNN.

This is what happens when 20% of the world’s oil supply gets shut off for 25 days. Countries start declaring emergencies. Airlines start grounding planes. Citizens start taking shorter showers. And a Russian tanker arrives in a country that hasn’t bought Russian oil in five years because it has no other choice. What this means for tanker demand, for crude flows, for the shadow fleet, and for every broker watching Asia scramble for supply is below.

📊 By The Numbers

The Shortage:

→ Strait Of Hormuz Effectively Shut Since February 28 (Multiple Sources)

→ 20% Of Global Oil Supply Transits Hormuz (Bloomberg, Reuters, Al Jazeera)

→ 60% Of Asia’s Oil Comes From The Middle East (CNN, March 25)

→ 80% Of Crude Transiting Hormuz Goes To Asia (Reuters, March 25)

→ 3,200 Vessels Stranded In The Persian Gulf (CNBC, March 18)

→ U.S. Gas Price: $2.98 To $3.96 In 23 Days (Fortune; AAA, March 23)

The Response:

→ Philippines: National Energy Emergency, 45 Days Of Fuel, First Russian Oil In 5 Years (Bloomberg, Philstar, March 25)

→ South Korea: Shorter Showers, Phone Charging Limits, License Plate Vehicle Rotation (Reuters, CNBC, March 25)

→ Japan: Biggest Emergency Oil Reserve Release In History, 800 Billion Yen ($5B) In Subsidies (CNN, Reuters, March 25)

→ Sri Lanka: Every Wednesday A Public Holiday To Save Fuel (Reuters, March 25)

→ Pakistan: Schools Closed Two Weeks, Work From Home Orders (Reuters, March 25)

→ China: Restricted Overseas Fuel Shipments To Protect Domestic Supply (CNN, March 25)

Additional Verified Data:

→ Sara Sky (Sierra Leone-Flagged): 100,000 Tonnes (~750,000 Barrels) ESPO Blend From Kozmino Port, Arrived Limay March 24 (Reuters, MarineTraffic, Philstar)

→ Cebu Pacific: Suspending Routes, Cutting Frequencies, Fuel Prices “More Than Doubled” (Philstar, AeroTime)

→ Philippines Has One Operating Refinery (Petron, Bataan) (The National)

→ Marcos: Grounding Planes “A Distinct Possibility” (Bloomberg) → Thailand: No Overseas Trips, AC Above 25°C, Use Stairs, Work From Home (Reuters)

→ Singapore: Energy-Efficient Appliances, EVs, Raise AC Temperatures (Reuters)

→ New Zealand: NZ$50/Week For Low-Income Families Starting April (Reuters)

→ Slovenia: First European Country To Introduce Fuel Rationing (CNBC)

Related Coverage

Goldman Sachs Just Called This “The Largest Supply Shock in the History of the Global Crude Market.” (March 2026)

Russia Is Making $150 Million Extra Per Day From the Iran War. (March 2026)

Asia is running out of fuel. The Philippines has 45 days. South Korea is rationing showers. Japan is draining its reserves. A Russian tanker just made its first delivery to Manila in five years. What this means for tanker demand across every crude route, which countries are next, and what happens when the strategic reserves run dry is below.

🔍 Why It Matters

For VLCC and Suezmax brokers, Asia’s energy emergency is the largest

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