The global maritime industry faces its most severe dual-chokepoint disruption in modern history after US-Israeli military strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February, triggering retaliatory IRGC attacks on Gulf shipping and an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world’s traded oil transits daily. Simultaneously, Yemen’s Houthi movement has declared an end to its three-and-a-half-month operational pause, threatening renewed missile and drone strikes against US- and Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait.
Strait of Hormuz & Persian Gulf
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps broadcast VHF warnings to all merchant vessels within hours of the first strikes on 28 February, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed to transit. Although Tehran has not issued a formal blockade declaration under international law, the operational reality has produced the same effect. Ship-tracking data compiled by MarineTraffic shows tanker traffic through the strait fell approximately 70% by 1 March, with more than 150 commercial vessels — including VLCCs, Suezmaxes, and LNG carriers — dropping anchor in open Gulf waters rather than attempt passage.
At least three tankers were struck by missiles or drones in the first 36 hours. The Palau-flagged product tanker Skylight, already designated on the US sanctions list, took a projectile hit five nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, injuring four of its 20 crew members and forcing a full evacuation. Fifteen Indian nationals and five Iranian nationals were aboard, according to Oman’s maritime authority. The crude carrier MKD Vyom sustained a strike above the waterline that ignited an engine room fire, later brought under control by crew. A third vessel, Sea La Donna, reported a separate attack in the same vicinity.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations confirmed receiving reports of two incidents off the Omani coast, including one vessel struck by an “unknown projectile” that caused a brief fire in the control room. UKMTO issued an urgent advisory to all commercial shipping to avoid the strait until further notice. US Naval Forces Central Command simultaneously declared a maritime warning zone covering the Middle East Gulf, Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea, and the strait itself, stating it could not guarantee the safety of neutral merchant shipping.
Greece’s Ministry of Maritime Affairs issued an emergency directive to all Greek-flagged vessels — a significant portion of the global tanker fleet — ordering maximum vigilance and avoidance of key Gulf shipping lanes. Iranian retaliatory strikes also targeted port infrastructure in Dubai and Duqm, Oman, raising concerns about the security of loading terminals well beyond the strait itself.
Maersk suspended all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz and warned of indefinite delays to services calling Persian Gulf ports. MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM issued similar operational guidance within hours. Maersk confirmed that all sailings on its Middle East-India to Mediterranean and Middle East-India to US East Coast services would be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope.
Red Sea & Gulf of Aden
The Houthi movement’s military spokesman declared on 28 February that the group would resume attacks on US- and Israeli-linked commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, ending a period of relative calm that had held since approximately 11 November 2025. The pause, linked to the Gaza ceasefire that took effect late last year, had allowed several major carriers to cautiously resume Suez Canal transits in January and February.
That calculation has now reversed entirely. CMA CGM suspended Suez Canal transits indefinitely on 1 March and began pulling vessels away from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, including the CMA CGM Congo, APL Paris, and APL Le Havre. Maersk, which had successfully sent the Maersk Sebarok and Maersk Denver through the Red Sea in January — its first transits in over a year — pulled back from the route.
The Houthis posted a short propaganda video showing images of a burning vessel with the caption “Soon,” offering no operational specifics but signalling clear intent. As of 1 March, no confirmed new maritime strike had been independently verified in connection with the latest Houthi statements. However, BIMCO warned that the group’s previous targeting patterns extended well beyond flag state to include vessels with ownership, chartering, trading, or corporate affiliations connected to Israel or the United States.
The dual collapse of both the Hormuz and Red Sea corridors creates a scenario that Container Magazine described as without precedent in modern container shipping — two of the world’s three most critical maritime chokepoints simultaneously denied to commercial traffic.
Sanctions Enforcement & Shadow Fleet
Belgian armed forces, supported by French naval assets, conducted a military boarding of the Russian shadow fleet tanker Ethera in the North Sea on 1 March. The operation, codenamed “Blue Intruder,” involved French naval helicopters and special forces personnel executing a night-time seizure of the Guinea-flagged vessel, which had been listed under US, EU, and UK sanctions but allegedly continued transporting Russian crude using a false flag and forged documentation.
Belgian forces escorted the Ethera into the port of Zeebrugge for formal arrest, marking Belgium’s first military seizure of a shadow fleet vessel and a significant escalation in Western enforcement operations. French President Emmanuel Macron called the operation “a major blow to the shadow fleet,” stating that European nations were committed to severing revenue streams funding Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The seizure follows a pattern of intensifying enforcement. The United States has seized several tankers suspected of supporting illicit oil trades since late 2025. French naval forces intercepted a suspected shadow fleet tanker in the western Mediterranean in January. The EU has been preparing additional sanctions packages specifically targeting shadow fleet operations, with the Washington Post reporting in early February that the bloc has the dark fleet increasingly in its sights.
Black Sea & Ukraine Corridor
Ukraine’s alternative Black Sea shipping corridor — hugging the western coastline through Romanian and Bulgarian territorial waters — continues to function, though the broader conflict picture has worsened. Russia struck port infrastructure in the Odesa region in late December, damaging a civilian Panama-flagged grain vessel and hitting oil storage facilities at the ports of Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba characterised the attack as a deliberate strike on civilian logistics designed to disrupt trade.
The corridor remains the primary route for Ukrainian wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and barley exports to Middle Eastern, Asian, and African buyers. Mine risks persist across the northwestern Black Sea, and the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative remains defunct since Russia’s withdrawal in July 2023. The current corridor’s viability depends entirely on Western intelligence support and the implicit deterrent of Romanian and Bulgarian NATO membership, which Russia has so far respected.
With the Strait of Hormuz crisis now consuming global naval attention and resources, the question of whether Western partners can sustain adequate maritime surveillance and mine-clearance support for the Black Sea corridor takes on renewed urgency.
South China Sea & Taiwan Strait
The Royal Australian Navy frigate HMAS Toowoomba completed a transit of the Taiwan Strait in late February, with Beijing’s Southern Theatre Command confirming it tracked and monitored the passage. The Australian vessel’s helicopter reportedly approached the median line before receiving warnings from Taiwan’s military — an unusual procedural friction between two notionally aligned forces.
China continues to accelerate land reclamation at Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands, where construction that began in December 2025 has created an estimated 15 square kilometres of new land. The People’s Liberation Army Navy has constructed approximately 20 outposts throughout the Paracels to reinforce Beijing’s territorial claims. While no direct shipping disruptions have been reported in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait this week, the concentration of US naval assets in the Persian Gulf for Operation Epic Fury raises questions about Washington’s capacity to maintain its freedom-of-navigation operations in the Western Pacific.
Market & Insurance Impact
The insurance market response has been swift and severe. Major P&I clubs and hull and machinery underwriters have issued Notices of Cancellation for war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Strait of Hormuz, effective 72 hours from 0000 GMT on 1 March — meaning coverage terminates by 4 March. Bloomberg reported that the world’s largest maritime insurance mutuals have withdrawn cover entirely, leaving shipowners unable to secure the policies required by charterers and port authorities.
War risk premiums for Hormuz transits, which stood at approximately 0.25% of insured hull and machinery value before the strikes, are expected to rise beyond 0.5% where cover remains available — translating to an additional $75,000 to $200,000 per large vessel per transit. Hapag-Lloyd introduced a War Risk Surcharge of $1,500 per TEU for Arabian Gulf cargo, with reefer containers and special equipment attracting $3,500 per box.
Brent crude opened Monday’s session at $78.41 per barrel, up 7.6%, having touched $82 intraday — a 13% spike from pre-strike levels. JPMorgan and Barclays analysts warned prices could reach $100 to $130 per barrel if disruptions persist beyond one week. Container spot rates from Shanghai to Jebel Ali surged 55% month-on-month to approximately $4,200 per FEU. The Cape of Good Hope reroute adds 10 to 14 days per voyage, absorbing an estimated 2.5 million TEU of effective global container capacity.
Outlook
Maritime stakeholders should prepare for sustained disruption across both the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea for at least the next 48 to 72 hours. The insurance coverage withdrawal deadline of 4 March will force any remaining vessels in the Gulf to either exit or accept uninsured exposure. Key trigger events to monitor include any Iranian attempt to physically mine the strait, the pace and targeting of further IRGC attacks on commercial vessels, whether Houthis translate their rhetoric into operational strikes in the Bab el-Mandeb, and the UN Security Council’s response following its recent extension of Houthi attack reporting under Resolution 2812. Escalation risk remains extremely high across both chokepoints, and the global shipping industry faces a period of maximum uncertainty that will test contingency plans, insurance frameworks, and supply chain resilience simultaneously.
