Brent Crude Settled Above 101 Dollars Today. AAA Pump Prices Just Dropped. Here Is Why The Disconnect Matters.
March set the largest monthly gas record since 1967, per BLS. April pump prices are falling even as Iran attacks ships in Hormuz today.
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Brent crude settled at $101.91 per barrel today, up more than 3 percent, after Iran’s IRGC attacked three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, per CNBC, NPR, Al Jazeera, and Investing.com. AAA’s live national gas average is $4.020 per gallon today, down from $4.118 a week ago. AAA’s headline today reads “Drivers See Small Break as Gas Prices Tick Lower.” This is a directional split: crude up, retail down. Six weeks ago, the Hormuz crisis produced the largest single-month US gasoline price increase since the BLS began the gasoline series in 1967, a 21.2 percent spike per BLS. Per Gosships analysis, the supply chain between crude and pump may be absorbing today’s shock differently than in March. Whether the lag persists is the directional question for April.
📋 In this issue:
🛢️ The Story
📊 By The Numbers
🔍 Why It Matters
👀 What to Watch
🚨 Gosships Signal
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→ Global Tanker Market Outlook Q2 2026
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📌 Gosships Data Card
→ Gasoline Up Twenty-One Point Two Percent In March Per BLS
→ Largest Monthly Increase Since Gasoline Series Began In Nineteen Sixty-Seven
→ AAA National Average Four Point Zero Two Zero USD Per Gallon Today
→ Iran Attacked Three Vessels In Hormuz Today Per NPR
→ Brent Crude Settled At One Hundred One Point Nine One USD Per Barrel Today Per CNBC
🛢️ The Story
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its March 2026 Consumer Price Index report on April 10. Per the BLS, the gasoline index rose 21.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, the largest monthly increase in the gasoline series since it was first published in 1967. Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices increased 24.9 percent. Per the BLS, the energy index rose 10.9 percent in March, the largest monthly increase since September 2005. Per the BLS, gasoline alone accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly all-items CPI increase. Headline CPI rose 0.9 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, putting the annual rate at 3.3 percent, up from 2.4 percent in February, per the BLS.
Per EIA daily Brent spot data via FRED, Brent closed at $71.32 per barrel on February 27, 2026 (the day before the war began) and rose to $77.24 by March 2. Per EY’s analysis of the March CPI release citing market data, WTI crude oil prices briefly surpassed $110 per barrel in March. Gosships analysis: gasoline retail prices typically lag wholesale moves by one to two weeks because wholesale-to-retail pass-through requires inventory turnover at the distributor and station level.
Per CNBC’s coverage of the March CPI release, US drivers paid $4.12 per gallon on average as of Monday April 6 per the EIA’s weekly data, up from approximately $2.94 before the war started, marking the first time the national average breached $4 since 2022 (when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent prices soaring). Per EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 2026), the 2025 annual average was $3.10 per gallon and EIA forecasts retail gasoline to peak at a monthly average close to $4.30 per gallon in April 2026 with a full-year 2026 average of $3.70 per gallon. Per AAA’s live national price report fetched directly from gasprices.aaa.com today, the national regular average is $4.020 per gallon, down from $4.042 yesterday and $4.118 one week ago, with a month-ago average of $3.925 and a year-ago average of $3.153. Per AAA’s news headline today: “Drivers See Small Break as Gas Prices Tick Lower.” Per Empower Personal Dashboard data published in April, US drivers spent $198.50 per month on gas on average in March, at $45.70 per transaction. Per AAA’s state averages fetched directly today, California drivers paid $5.829 per gallon (highest), Hawaii $5.658, Washington $5.379, Oregon $4.971, Nevada $4.930. Oklahoma drivers paid $3.381 per gallon (lowest). Per AAA’s all-time record, the highest national regular average was $5.016 on June 14, 2022.
Per CNN, households earning under $30,000 annually spend an average of 7.1 percent of pre-tax income on gas. Per CNN’s calculation using BLS household income tier data, if March gas price levels persist for one year, those households would pay an additional $223 annually. Per Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, speaking to CNBC after the CPI release: “Inflation is a problem and it’s only going to get worse.” Per Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, speaking to CNN: “There’s been bigger energy price shocks in total, but they’ve rippled through over several months. This just came through in one month.”
Per NPR, Al Jazeera, and CNBC, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked at least three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, April 22, hours after President Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire. Per the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center cited by NPR, an IRGC gunboat approached and fired on a container ship without warning, causing heavy damage to the bridge but no injuries. Per Iranian state media via Al Jazeera, the IRGC said the vessels had violated maritime regulations and entered the strategic waterway without coordination. Per Iranian semiofficial outlets Tasnim and Fars cited by NPR, Iran’s navy reported seizing the MSC Francesca and the Greek-owned Epaminondas, and Fars reported a third ship called the Euphoria was also targeted. Per the Greek Ministry of Shipping cited by multiple outlets, the Epaminondas was not captured but received extensive damage. Per Al Jazeera, the IRGC stated the action came in response to what it described as the United States’ capture of an Iranian commercial vessel, a reference to the M/T Tifani interdiction in the Bay of Bengal on April 21.
Per Al Jazeera citing British maritime security firm Vanguard Tech, the container vessel that came under fire was sailing under a Liberian flag and had been informed it had permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Per Iranian news agency Tasnim cited by Al Jazeera, the ship had ignored warnings from Iran’s armed forces. Per Vanguard Tech via Al Jazeera, the third targeted vessel was the Panama-flagged container ship Euphoria, which was transiting outbound of the Strait. Per MarineTraffic via AFP, the Euphoria later left the strait headed to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Per the Greek Ministry of Shipping cited by multiple outlets, the Epaminondas was not captured but received extensive damage. Per AFP, the attack on the Epaminondas consisted of gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades, causing significant damage to the bridge.
Per CNBC, Brent crude settled at $101.91 per barrel today, up more than 3 percent. Per Yahoo Finance citing NYMEX, the Brent Last Day Financial contract closed at $101.81 (+3.38%) at 4:56 PM EDT. Per CNBC, US West Texas Intermediate futures settled at $92.96 per barrel, up more than 3 percent. Per Investing.com, Brent’s intraday range today was $96.56 to $102.31. Per Fortune, Brent traded at $101.14 per barrel at 9 AM Eastern Time, up $4.82 from the prior morning. Per Reuters wire reporting cited by Investing.com, oil prices jumped by more than $3 on Wednesday after a surprise gasoline and distillate inventory drop combined with reports of gunfire on container ships in Hormuz. Per the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report fetched directly from ir.eia.gov today, US commercial crude oil inventories rose 1.9 million barrels to 465.7 million barrels (about 3 percent above the five-year average), gasoline inventories fell 4.6 million barrels to 228.4 million barrels (0.5 percent below five-year average), and distillate inventories fell 3.4 million barrels to 108.1 million barrels (about 8 percent below five-year average). Refinery utilization was 89.1 percent. Per Barchart citing CME, June RBOB gasoline futures (RBM26) settled up $0.1201 (+3.84 percent) on April 22, with gasoline posting a 3-week high. June WTI crude (CLM26) settled up $3.29 (+3.67 percent) on Wednesday.
Per CNBC’s reporting on the UKMTO advisory, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said the vessel that was fired upon was approached by an IRGC gunboat about 8 nautical miles off the coast of Iran at 8:38 AM London time, with the crew safe and no damage sustained at that time.
Per CNN, US carriers raised checked baggage prices in the weeks following the war’s start to offset higher jet fuel costs. Per CNN, JetBlue raised its first checked bag fee from $35 to $39 (off-peak) and from $40 to $49 (peak). Per CNN, Delta raised checked baggage fees by between $4 and $9 depending on flight times. Per CNBC citing Kayak weekly flight data, an average round-trip economy fare from the United States to Rome cost $1,165 as of March 30, up from $846 on February 23. A round-trip ticket to Hong Kong rose to $1,403 from $1,042 over the same period. Per CNBC citing CPI data, airfares rose 14.9 percent year-on-year in March.
📊 By The Numbers
