Hormuz Traffic Collapses 70% as IRGC Declares Strait Closed, Insurers Pull Coverage
Hormuz traffic drops 70% after IRGC closure threat. Insurers pull coverage. Houthis pledge Red Sea return. Belgium seizes shadow fleet tanker.
GOSSHIPS CONFLICT MONITOR — 3 March 2026
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut to commercial traffic after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the waterway closed on 2 March, triggering the worst disruption to global energy flows in decades. Ship-tracking data shows a 70 percent drop in vessel movements through the strait since the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran began on 28 February. Marine war risk insurers have cancelled Gulf coverage effective 5 March, Brent crude has surged past $82 per barrel, and the world's largest container lines have suspended all Hormuz transits. Simultaneously, Houthi forces have pledged to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping, Belgian special forces have seized a Russian shadow fleet tanker in the North Sea, and Russian drones struck port infrastructure in the Odesa region overnight. This briefing covers all active maritime conflict zones as of 1200 UTC on 3 March 2026.
Strait of Hormuz: IRGC Closure Threat Paralyzes Gulf Shipping
The flashpoint of the current crisis is the 21-nautical-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's daily oil consumption normally transits. Operation Epic Fury — the joint U.S.–Israeli air campaign against Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure — commenced on 28 February and has triggered a cascade of retaliatory actions from Tehran.
On 2 March, a senior IRGC official confirmed the strait was closed to all commercial traffic, warning that any vessel attempting passage would be targeted. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO) reported that multiple vessels operating in the Gulf received VHF radio transmissions stating the strait had been shut, though UKMTO noted these claims are not legally binding since Iran has not formally declared a blockade under international law.
Three commercial vessels have already been struck by projectiles in waters near the strait. UKMTO confirmed attacks on the tanker Skylight, the bulker MKD Vyom, and the LPG carrier Hercules Star. One tanker north of Muscat sustained a hit above the waterline that ignited a fire subsequently brought under control. A third vessel northwest of Mina Saqr in the UAE was also struck, according to CNBC and Argus Media reports.
Ship-tracking data compiled by Windward shows a 70 percent reduction in transit traffic through the strait since 28 February. At least 150 tankers carrying crude oil and liquefied natural gas have dropped anchor in open Gulf waters beyond the chokepoint, awaiting instructions from charterers and owners. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) has raised its threat level for the strait to "critical."
Maersk announced on 1 March that it was suspending all vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, having only recently resumed transits following the earlier Houthi-related diversions. Hapag-Lloyd followed with a blanket suspension of Hormuz transits "until further notice." Both carriers have rerouted Middle East–Europe and Middle East–Americas services around the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 10 to 14 days to transit times. Maersk confirmed its ME11 and MECL services are now routing via the Cape.
UKMTO continues to warn of sustained GNSS, AIS, and VHF interference across the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and North Arabian Sea, cautioning masters to maintain a listening watch on VHF Channel 16 and report abnormal activity promptly. The U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD) issued Advisory 2026-001A covering the Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Arabian Sea, citing the risk of military operations and potential retaliatory strikes by Iranian forces.
Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb: Houthis Pledge Renewed Attacks
After roughly three and a half months of relative calm — from mid-November 2025 through late February 2026 — Yemen's Houthi forces have declared they will resume missile and drone attacks on shipping in the Red Sea corridor. Two senior Houthi officials told the Associated Press on 28 February that the group decided to restart operations in direct response to the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran.
The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) issued a warning that vessels with commercial links to U.S. or Israeli interests face elevated risk. Previous Houthi targeting patterns extended well beyond flag state to include ships perceived to have ownership, chartering, trading, or corporate affiliations connected to those nations. Maersk, which had begun phasing selected services back through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in early 2026, immediately re-suspended those transits.
As of 1200 UTC on 3 March, no confirmed new maritime strike had been independently verified in connection with the latest Houthi statements, according to UKMTO reporting. However, the rhetorical escalation has been sufficient to reverse months of cautious route normalization. Any plans for a phased return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026 are now effectively shelved, with carriers defaulting to Cape of Good Hope routing for both Gulf and Red Sea–bound cargo.
Black Sea: Russian Drones Hit Odesa Port Infrastructure
Russian forces continued their campaign against Ukrainian port infrastructure in the Odesa region over the past 48 hours. On the night of 2–3 March, drones launched from the Black Sea struck facilities in the Odesa region, damaging a dry cargo warehouse, road containers, and administrative buildings, according to Oleh Kiper, head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration. No casualties were reported in this particular attack.
Earlier on 2 March, an air-raid alert was issued across Odesa as drones approached the city from the Black Sea. Explosions were heard at 9:20 and 9:58 local time, with reports of a strike on a residential building in one of the city's districts. These attacks follow a broader Russian escalation targeting Odesa's ports — Pivdennyi, Chornomorsk, and Odesa port — which together handle approximately 85 percent of Ukraine's maritime exports.
Despite the attacks, Ukraine's humanitarian shipping corridor through the western Black Sea remains operational. Ukrainian naval forces maintain security control of the corridor, and grain export volumes have continued, with maritime routes accounting for 92 percent of Ukraine's corn, wheat, and soybean exports as of late 2024. The corridor does not transit waters near the conflict zone in the eastern Black Sea, though mine risk and the potential for long-range drone or missile strikes on port facilities remain persistent threats to loading operations.
Shadow Fleet: Belgium Seizes Russian Tanker Ethera in North Sea
In the early hours of 1 March, Belgian armed forces — supported by French naval aviation providing two NH90 helicopters — boarded and seized the Russian shadow fleet tanker Ethera in the North Sea. The vessel, registered under the flag of Guinea, was sailing with falsified ship documents. British, European, and U.S. governments had all previously sanctioned the vessel.
The Ethera was escorted into the port of Zeebrugge following the overnight military boarding operation. French President Emmanuel Macron described the seizure as evidence that Europeans are "determined to cut off the sources of funding for Russia's war of aggression." Belgium is the second European nation to detain a shadow fleet tanker; France became the first in January 2026 when it seized the tanker Grinch.
The operation signals an intensifying enforcement posture against the estimated 600-vessel Russian shadow fleet that continues to transport crude oil above the G7 price cap of $60 per barrel. Compliance officers and P&I clubs should note that vessels with opaque ownership structures, flag-of-convenience registrations, and gaps in their insurance documentation face growing interdiction risk in European waters.
South China Sea and Taiwan Strait: Elevated Baseline Activity
China's military activity around Taiwan remains at historically elevated levels. PLA sorties into Taiwan's air defense identification zone totaled 5,709 in 2025, up from 5,107 in 2024, according to Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense figures reported by the Taipei Times. The December 2025 Justice Mission drills — simulating a total maritime blockade of Taiwan — represented the most extensive PLA exercises around the island to date.
In the South China Sea, PRC construction on Antelope Reef continues, with dredgers creating an estimated 15 square kilometers of new land since work began in December 2025. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Theresa Lazaro announced monthly dialogues between South China Sea claimant states and Beijing starting in March 2026, signaling a diplomatic track alongside the military buildup. No specific maritime incidents have been reported in the past 48 hours, but the long-term trajectory of force posture in the region continues to trend toward greater restriction of commercial navigation options.
Market and Insurance Impact
Brent crude futures surged past $82 per barrel on 3 March, extending a three-day rally as the Hormuz crisis deepened. Analysts at several major banks forecast potential rises to $100 or higher should the strait remain effectively closed for more than a week. The immediate price shock reflects the stranding of an estimated 150 laden tankers in Gulf anchorages.
Marine war risk insurers moved with unusual speed over the weekend, issuing cancellation notices for Gulf shipping policies before markets reopened on Monday. Protection and indemnity coverage for Hormuz transits is being withdrawn effective 5 March, according to The National. Marsh, the world's largest insurance broker, estimates hull and machinery rate increases of 25 to 50 percent for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and wider Gulf region. Before the strikes, war risk premiums stood at approximately 0.25 percent of insured hull value per transit; industry brokers now indicate premiums could reach 0.5 percent or higher — translating to a single-transit premium of roughly $750,000 for a large container vessel valued at $150 million.
Container carriers are passing costs directly to shippers. Hapag-Lloyd imposed a war risk surcharge of $1,500 per TEU and $3,500 per reefer container effective 2 March. CMA CGM introduced an Emergency Conflict Surcharge of $2,000 per 20-foot container, $3,000 per 40-foot, and $4,000 per reefer for cargo to and from the Gulf and all Red Sea ports. Freight rate analysts expect a broader 10 to 20 percent increase in spot rates on affected trade lanes when full market pricing reflects the disruption.
Outlook
The Strait of Hormuz crisis represents the most severe chokepoint disruption since the 1987–88 Tanker War. The combination of IRGC closure threats, confirmed attacks on three commercial vessels, mass insurance withdrawals, and carrier suspensions has created conditions in which the strait is functionally impassable for commercial shipping regardless of its legal status. The next 72 hours are critical: if Iranian forces conduct further attacks on commercial vessels, or if coalition military operations expand, the crisis could trigger a sustained closure measured in weeks rather than days.
Simultaneously, the Houthi pledge to resume Red Sea attacks compounds the routing challenge for east-west trade. Vessels that would normally transit either the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal now face Cape of Good Hope routing as the default, with associated delays of two to three weeks and significant bunker cost increases.
Fleet managers and compliance teams should ensure all vessels in the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea are operating under enhanced security protocols, with AIS transponders active, GNSS backup systems engaged, and crew briefed on hostile-action response procedures. War risk coverage should be verified with H&M and P&I underwriters before any vessel enters the JWC Listed Area.
Sources: CNBC, The National, Argus Media, France24, Hapag-Lloyd, UKMTO, MARAD, Windward, Bloomberg, AP, Euronews, Taipei Times, AEI, Odesa Regional Military Administration.