In a recent meeting at the White House, President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans for Japan to significantly increase imports of American liquefied natural gas (LNG). This initiative is part of a broader strategy to strengthen bilateral economic ties and address trade imbalances between the two nations.
While specific figures were not disclosed during the announcement, the commitment to import "historic amounts" of U.S. LNG suggests a substantial increase over current levels. To estimate the number of vessels required for this trade, several factors must be considered.
The conventional size for new LNG carriers is approximately 170,000 cubic meters. One cubic meter of LNG contains about 23.5 million British thermal units (MMBtu). If Japan plans to import an additional five million tonnes of LNG annually, this equates to approximately 240 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas.
To transport this volume, some calculations can be made. Five million tonnes of LNG is roughly 6.41 million cubic meters. By dividing this total volume by the carrier capacity of 170,000 cubic meters per vessel, approximately 38 voyages per year would be required. Considering round-trip durations, port operations, and maintenance, a single vessel might complete around six to eight voyages annually between the U.S. Gulf Coast and Japan. Therefore, to achieve 38 voyages, a dedicated fleet of about five to seven LNG carriers would be necessary.
Japanese shipping companies are already preparing for increased LNG demand. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) plans to expand its LNG carrier fleet to approximately 150 vessels by 2030. Similarly, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK) aims to operate around 120 LNG carriers by 2028. These expansions indicate a strategic move to support anticipated growth in LNG transportation needs, both domestically and for international trade partners like the United States.
The commitment between the U.S. and Japan to enhance LNG trade will necessitate a dedicated fleet of LNG carriers. Based on projected import volumes, an estimated five to seven vessels would be required to meet the increased demand. Japanese shipping companies are proactively expanding their fleets to accommodate this anticipated growth, ensuring the infrastructure is in place to support the evolving energy partnership.
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