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China’s Exports Surge to Record Highs Ahead of Trump Tariff Threats

Maggie Johnson

By Maggie Johnson

January 14, 2025


Image Credit: Available at Pixabay (01/14/2025).

Chinese exports surged to record levels in 2024 as businesses raced to ship goods overseas in anticipation of higher tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. The export boom served to offset weak domestic demand and prepare for the challenges posed by an evolving trade landscape.

According to customs data reported by China Central Television, exports increased by 7.1% to 25.5 trillion yuan ($3.5 trillion), while imports grew by 2.3%, resulting in a historic trade surplus of 7.1 trillion yuan. Export values climbed consistently throughout the year, surpassing levels seen during the pandemic. This growth provided critical support for China’s economy, which has been weighed down by a housing crisis and subdued consumer spending.

However, this export surge may be a fleeting achievement. Trump has vowed to impose steeper tariffs on Chinese goods upon taking office, a move that could disrupt existing trade flows. Chinese exporters may be forced to redirect shipments, potentially inundating other global markets with inexpensive goods and heightening trade tensions worldwide.

Adding to the complexity, export prices have been declining for more than a year as deflation within China has reduced the cost of goods. This has driven export volume growth to outpace value growth, with total export volumes rising by 7.3% through November 2024 compared to a 5.4% increase in value in U.S. dollar terms, according to the Ministry of Transport.

This trend is particularly visible in Shanghai, which became the first port globally to process over 50 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in a single year. In 2024, the port handled 51.5 million containers, reflecting a 5% increase from 2023 and a 19% rise from pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

China’s record-breaking export surge underscores its critical role in global trade and the resilience of its economy. Yet, with external pressures mounting and domestic challenges persisting, the nation faces an uncertain path forward. The coming months will test whether China can adapt to a shifting global trade environment while maintaining its economic stability.

China can adapt to a shifting global trade environment while maintaining its economic stability.

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