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Texan Oil Barons Bet Big on Trump’s Energy Policies

Briggs McCriddle


With President-elect Donald Trump set to take office in January 2025, Texas oil barons are brimming with optimism about the future of the U.S. energy industry. Known for his pro-oil and gas stance during his first term, Trump has promised to roll back regulations, expand drilling on federal lands, and revive the domestic fossil fuel industry. For many in the Lone Star State, his return to the White House signals a potential boom for Texas oil.

However, not everyone is convinced that Trump’s policies alone can reignite the oil and gas sector. As global markets continue to dictate energy prices, Texas oil magnates must navigate a complex landscape where political promises and economic realities don’t always align.

Texas: America’s Oil Heartland

Texas has long been the epicenter of America’s oil and gas industry. Home to prolific basins like the Permian and Eagle Ford, the state produces nearly half of the U.S.’s crude oil and a quarter of its natural gas. With an infrastructure network that includes vast pipelines, refineries, and export terminals, Texas is uniquely positioned to capitalize on increased fossil fuel production.

But the industry has faced significant challenges in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic collapse in oil prices, forcing companies to cut costs, delay projects, and lay off thousands of workers. As the world pivots toward renewable energy, Texas oil companies are under pressure to adapt, even as they remain crucial to global energy markets.

Trump’s Promises: Regulatory Rollbacks and Energy Expansion

Trump’s campaign rhetoric has revived hopes among Texas oil executives for a more favorable regulatory environment. His promises include:

  1. Expanding Drilling on Federal Lands: Trump has pledged to open more federal lands and offshore areas for oil and gas exploration. For Texas companies, this could mean access to untapped resources and new revenue streams.

  2. Rolling Back Regulations: The Biden administration’s methane regulations and restrictions on fracking have been a sore point for the industry. Trump’s promise to dismantle these measures could lower operational costs for producers.

  3. Boosting Energy Exports: With U.S. LNG and crude oil exports growing rapidly, Trump has vowed to strengthen America’s position as a global energy supplier. Texas, with its expansive port infrastructure, stands to benefit significantly.

  4. Reversing the Energy Transition Narrative: Trump’s energy platform focuses on “energy dominance” rather than transition. His administration is expected to prioritize fossil fuels over renewables, contrasting sharply with Biden’s climate agenda.

Cautious Optimism: The Role of Global Markets

Despite Trump’s promises, industry veterans caution that global market dynamics, not domestic policy, ultimately dictate oil prices. Key factors include:

  • OPEC+ Influence: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, control a significant portion of global oil supply. Their decisions on production cuts or increases heavily influence market prices.

  • Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts in oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, can create supply disruptions and price volatility.

  • Renewable Energy Growth: The global shift toward renewable energy and electric vehicles is reducing long-term demand for fossil fuels, particularly in Europe and China.

Even with Trump’s support, Texas oil companies must contend with these external pressures, which can often override domestic policy changes.

Opportunities in LNG and Petrochemicals

One area where Texas stands to gain regardless of market volatility is liquefied natural gas (LNG). The state’s LNG export terminals have seen a surge in demand, particularly from Europe, which is seeking alternatives to Russian gas. Trump’s pro-export stance could further bolster this sector, creating opportunities for Texas producers to expand their footprint in global markets.

Additionally, Texas’s petrochemical industry, which relies on natural gas as a feedstock, could benefit from lower regulatory costs and increased domestic production. With growing demand for plastics, chemicals, and other industrial products, the petrochemical sector is poised for steady growth.

The Risks of Overreliance

While Trump’s policies may provide short-term relief, overreliance on fossil fuels carries long-term risks for Texas. The global energy transition is accelerating, with major economies investing heavily in renewables and carbon reduction technologies. Texas oil companies that fail to diversify risk being left behind as the world shifts to cleaner energy sources.

Some forward-thinking Texas firms are already hedging their bets. Companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron have announced investments in carbon capture, hydrogen, and renewable fuels, recognizing that the future of energy will be multifaceted.

The Public Perception Battle

Trump’s policies also face criticism from environmental groups and climate activists, who argue that doubling down on oil and gas undermines efforts to combat climate change. Public opinion on energy is shifting, with younger generations increasingly favoring renewables over fossil fuels. For Texas oil barons, maintaining their social license to operate will require balancing economic growth with environmental responsibility.

The Road Ahead: Boom or Bust?

The next four years could be pivotal for Texas oil and gas. Trump’s return to the White House provides an opportunity to revitalize the industry, but companies must navigate an increasingly complex energy landscape. Key questions remain:

  • Will Trump’s policies deliver the economic benefits Texas oil executives hope for, or will global market forces limit their impact?

  • Can Texas maintain its position as a global energy leader while adapting to the demands of a decarbonizing world?

  • How will the industry address public and environmental concerns while pursuing growth?

For now, Texas oil barons are betting big on Trump’s policies, hoping for a repeat of the boom years. But as the energy world evolves, adaptability and innovation may prove more critical than political promises.

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