Why Bet Billions on Ammonia Over Oil?
Five ammonia-capable ships were ordered in all of 2025 against 256 for LNG, yet Exmar, AET and others keep spending. What do they see?
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Most of the tanker market is buying oil and gas. A handful of owners are quietly ordering ships to burn a toxic fuel almost no one else wants. This is why.
The smart money in tankers is on oil. It is on the Hormuz boom, on second-hand VLCCs, on the sanctioned-barrel trades, and this month it is on a bank: JPMorgan Asset Management has quietly ordered roughly $1.3bn of crude-tanker newbuilds, per TradeWinds. Set against that, the case for ammonia looks absurd. Only five ammonia-capable ships were booked in the whole of 2025, against 256 for LNG, on Clarksons Research figures. Green ammonia costs about five times conventional fuel and barely exists. Yet Exmar, AET, European Maritime Finance and a short list of others keep placing the bet anyway. The question worth asking is what they see that the oil-buying majority does not.
📋 In This Issue:
🛢️ The Story
Why a handful of owners are ordering ammonia ships while the market piles into oil and LNG
📊 By The Numbers
The six figures that frame a billion-dollar bet against the crowd
🔍 Why It Matters
What it changes for owners, charterers, financiers, engine makers and the oil trade
👀 What To Watch
Six signals that decide whether the ammonia bet pays or breaks
🚨 Gosships Signal
The one thing every ammonia order is really wagering on
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2023: WinGD and MAN Energy Solutions, since rebranded Everllence, move their two-stroke ammonia dual-fuel engines into full-scale testing, the hardware the whole bet depends on (WinGD, Everllence)
April 2024: AET, the tanker arm of Malaysia’s MISC, orders two ammonia dual-fuel Aframax crude tankers at Dalian Shipbuilding, chartered to Petronas trading unit PETCO Trading Labuan; delivery is not officially disclosed (Seatrade Maritime, MISC)
April 2025: The IMO approves its Net-Zero Framework at MEPC 83, the first mandatory carbon price for a whole global industry (IMO, DNV)
October 17, 2025: An extraordinary IMO session votes 57 to 49, with 29 abstaining or absent, to postpone adoption of that framework by one year, under United States pressure (DNV, Lloyd’s List)
April 23, 2026: Ammonia is bunkered to a commercial ship for the first time, roughly 600 tonnes loaded shore-to-ship at Ulsan by the Ulsan Port Authority with Lotte Fine Chemical (Seatrade Maritime, Maritime Executive)
June 10, 2026: Exmar takes delivery of the Antwerpen, the first ocean-going newbuild designed to burn ammonia, the first of four (Exmar, WinGD)
Sources: Clarksons Research via Ship & Bunker (January 5, 2026); DNV, Ammonia in Shipping (September 3, 2025); zerocarbonshipping.com and DNV on the IMO Net-Zero Framework (2025 to 2026); Exmar and WinGD (June 2026); Seatrade Maritime and Maritime Executive (April and June 2026); Riviera (September 4, 2024); TradeWinds (2026); Offshore Energy (2026); EIA.
🛢️ The Story
Follow the money in tankers right now and almost all of it runs one way, and that way is into oil. Owners are booking record fortunes running crude through Hormuz, second-hand VLCC values sit near multi-year highs, and this month JPMorgan
