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Russia’s government said on Saturday that it had partly reopened diesel exports, clearing 500,000 tons for the world market at this stage, to carry out what it called the agreements between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. A day earlier Trump announced four tranches: more than 300,000 tons at once, another 500,000 during November, a million tons after that and, if Russia’s refineries allow, 3 million more soon afterward, or 4.8 million tons in all, worth about $7 billion at Friday’s US diesel futures prices by our arithmetic. The US Treasury has licensed the trade until April 7, 2027. The question is supply. Russia’s seaborne diesel exports ran at 143,000 to 190,000 barrels a day in the third quarter, depending on the tracker, against about 690,000 a year earlier. The International Energy Agency puts the fall in Russia’s diesel output at nearly 30 percent after Ukrainian drone strikes, and Russia has been importing fuel. The final 3 million tons alone is more than Russia shipped by sea in the whole third quarter. Washington’s own law sets a second test: by October 18 the Graham Act requires duties of up to 500 percent on all Russian goods entering the United States, petroleum products included, and the licence exempts nothing from them. We found no waiver. And the licence is American and silent on the price cap. The EU’s $100-a-barrel cap on Russian diesel still binds EU shipowners and insurers, while diesel trades near twice that. On our reading, the first tranches test Moscow’s willingness. The last one, by Trump’s own account, depends on its refineries. This brief sets out what Trump announced, what Moscow cleared, what Washington licensed, how much diesel Russia has, the October 18 test, who could carry it, where it would go and what the record supports.
📋 In This Issue:
⚖️ The Story:
What Trump announced, what Moscow cleared, what Washington licensed, how much diesel Russia has, the October 18 test, who could carry it, where it would go and what the record supports
📊 By The Numbers:
The 4.8 million tons, the 500,000 tons cleared, exports under 200,000 barrels a day, the output fall of nearly 30 percent, the $100 cap and duties of up to 500 percent
🌍 Why It Matters:
What it changes for the tanker owner and broker, the charterer and fuel trader, the underwriter and compliance officer and the ship financier and investor
👀 What To Watch:
October 18, the first cargoes, Russia’s export data, the refinery strikes, the price cap and the falsifier that would change this brief’s reading
🚨 Gosships Signal:
The licence was the easy part
