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On September 10, forty five minutes after his company released its half year numbers, Nikolas Tsakos told an earnings call that the programme he started two years ago is worth far more than he agreed to pay for it. His words. He has taken delivery of seven of the 26, the valuation of those seven has already increased by at least 30 percent, and so his three billion dollar newbuilding programme is worth close to $3.8 billion, $3.9 billion today and growing on a monthly basis. He added that the company is very well in the money. Take the two figures inside that one sentence and the gain he named is $800 million at the low end, $900 million at the high one. Nineteen of the 26 have not been delivered, his own count from later in the same call: we still have to take over 19. Asked about the three VLCCs he contracted at Hanwha Ocean, he went further. He placed those contracts less than a year ago, he said, and in his own words they have almost doubled in price since. What goes for those three, he added, goes for all 26. Nine shipbroking houses published a price for a VLCC newbuilding in September and the field runs from $124.1 million to about $135 million. Three print a year on year column and it reads four percent, 2.3 percent and 1.56 percent. One house prints the whole argument in a single row. Star Asia assesses a 310,000 deadweight crude carrier at $130 million on a newbuilding contract and $175 million for a newbuilding you can take now. Same size, same table, same week. The $45 million between them is the wait. His own president, on the same call, put the appreciation at 30 percent, and when an analyst restated it back as 30 percent Tsakos answered in one word. Yeah. The $3.8 billion appears in nothing his company has written. Not the earnings release, not the six month accounts filed a week later, not the fleet data kit published four days after the call. His own slide deck carries a fleet fair market value of $4.9 billion and no orderbook figure at all. There is a market in which tanker tonnage has almost doubled this year and Tsakos is reading it correctly. It is the market for vessels a buyer can take next week. His arrive in 2027 and 2028.
📋 In This Issue:
⚖️ The Story:
What he actually said and in what order, why the figure exists in no document his company has written, what the 19 unbuilt hulls are and what is still owed on them, the nine houses that price a VLCC newbuilding and the one row that settles it, the half of his order book no broker prices at all, everything he has right and the answer to it
📊 By The Numbers:
The $800 million his own two figures give, the 19 he has not received, four percent against 113 percent, the $45 million one broker prints between a contract and a vessel ready now, the zero houses pricing a shuttle tanker and the $1.5 billion that is the only charter backlog in the filing
🌍 Why It Matters:
Which way the resale comparison actually runs, what an analyst can and cannot mark, the two very different exposures inside one order book and the two documents a lender is being handed
👀 What To Watch:
The contract to prompt spread, the first handover in 2027, a seventh name for the backlog, the charter gap on 10 hulls and the one trade that would prove him right
🚨 Gosships Signal:
He is right about the market. He is quoting it on the wrong vessels
