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On Wednesday afternoon, on the apron at Joint Base Andrews, next to an aircraft whose emergency slide had just deployed by accident, the president of the United States gave the tanker market something it has not had since late February. He gave it a date. “I think the war’s going to end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer”, Donald Trump told reporters before boarding for Dallas, and on fuel prices he added that “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward”, though “I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm”. The Associated Press, which carried the exchange, summarised it as a prediction “that the war won’t be wrapped up until after Nov. 3”. That is 54 days from September 10. What makes this worth a working broker’s attention is not the politics and it is not the forecast, both of which are somebody else’s problem. It is that war risk is the only major line in shipping that is priced entirely without a maturity. A hull policy runs a year. A charter runs to redelivery. An additional premium for a Strait of Hormuz transit is quoted as a percentage of the vessel’s value for one passage, against a danger that has no stated end, and the whole reason it costs what it costs is that nobody can say when it stops. The president has now said when it stops. One week earlier his own vice president was asked the same question and refused to answer it. And since American forces began destroying Iranian tankers on September 5, eight of them by Tuesday, not one underwriter, broker or club has said anything on the record about what any of it does to the price of a transit. That silence is the finding, and it is louder than the forecast.
📋 In This Issue:
⚖️ The Story:
What Trump actually said and where he said it, what his vice president refused to say a week earlier, why war risk is the one shipping product with no maturity date, the four different rates three named sources are quoting for the same transit, the cargo cover that now costs more than the vessel, the premium for getting out rather than going in and the market silence that nobody has explained
📊 By The Numbers:
The 10 percent of hull value, the $140 million vessel behind it, the $7 to $8 a barrel, the $2 billion of claims, the $10 million to $20 million transit and the 54 days
🌍 Why It Matters:
What it changes for the chartering desk, the freight derivatives book, the marine underwriter and the general counsel
👀 What To Watch:
November 3, the first quote taken after the strikes, the premium for getting back out and the falsifier that would break this brief
🚨 Gosships Signal:
The market never asked for a date. It has one now, and it has not moved a basis point
