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Vitol keeps appearing among the companies carrying Iraq’s crude to buyers through the war. Bloomberg reported on August 12 that Vitol and TotalEnergies had until then been “the major carriers of Iraqi crude”, and it named both again on August 27. On August 24 Patrick Pouyanné, TotalEnergies’ chief executive, put the cost of a VLCC round trip through Hormuz at about $20 million, which he said added about $10 a barrel. SOMO, the state marketer of Iraq’s oil, has sold mostly at the loading port, which leaves that passage to the buyer. It offered August-loading Basrah Medium at discounts of $25 to $27 a barrel, according to Reuters and Bloomberg, and for September it cut the discount to as little as $15. On this desk’s arithmetic the August discount covered Pouyanné’s figure about two and a half times, and the September floor covers it one and a half times. On the oil ministry’s figures, exports rose. The ministry put September’s average at about 2.6 million barrels a day up to September 21, against about 70 million barrels for all of August, or about 2.26 million a day by this desk’s arithmetic. On this desk’s reading, two changes in late August may explain part of both moves: Iran allowed some tankers laden with Iraqi oil through Hormuz, IRNA reported on August 22, and SOMO put cargoes up for collection by ship-to-ship transfer off the Omani coast. Vitol declined to comment to Reuters. What Iraq took home per barrel in August, how freight east of Oman moved in September and which October numbers will test the $15 floor are set out below.
📋 In This Issue:
⚖️ The Story:
How Iraq sells its crude in wartime, the companies with the vessels, what the August discount covered, what changed for September, what Iraq took home, the volume, the ordinary explanation, the case against this brief and what the record supports
📊 By The Numbers:
The August and September discounts, Pouyanné’s $10 a barrel, Iraq’s August barrels and revenue, the revenue per barrel, September’s export rate and freight east of Oman
🌍 Why It Matters:
What it changes for the crude trader, the VLCC owner and broker, the refinery buyer of Basrah grades and the analyst following Iraq’s oil income
👀 What To Watch:
SOMO’s October terms, the ministry’s September figures, freight east of Oman, Iraq’s quota request to OPEC and the falsifier that would overturn this brief
🚨 Gosships Signal:
